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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Colorado

Latest News and Updates


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Conservative Ranking


Colorado is the 27th most conservative state, voting 2.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Colorado is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Colorado ranks 41st among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM, 9 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Wayne Allard decided against running for 3rd term in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bob Schaffer - Former U. S. Representative from Colorado

    DEM Candidates

  • Mark Udall - U. S. Representative from Colorado
  • Mark Benner - Teacher

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Gain

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    District 4


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Marilyn Musgrave is seeking a 4th term in 2008.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Marilyn Musgrave - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Betsy Markey - Congressional Aide

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Dianna Degette (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  ??? (D) vs. Tom Stone (R)
  • District 3:  John Salazar (D)-inc vs. Wayne Wolf (R)
  • District 5:  Doug Lamborn? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  OPEN:  ??? (R) vs. Stephen Ludwig (D)
  • District 7:  Ed Perlmutter (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • May 29, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 12, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP, 4 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 20 DEM
        State House - DEM control 25 GOP, 40 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Bill Ritter (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Barbara O'Brien (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Wayne Allard (R) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Ken Salazar (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Dianna Degett (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Mark Udall (D) - 5th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 3:  John Salazar (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Doug Lamborn (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Tom Tancredo (R) - 4th term (ran for President)
  • House District 7:  Ed Perlmutter (D) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Mod GOP -- Weak GOP --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Weak GOP -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak DEM --

    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Strong DEM

    House 3 GOP - 3 DEM 5 GOP - 2 DEM 4 GOP - 3 DEM 3 GOP - 4 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak DEM Solid DEM
    CD-4 Solid GOP Strong GOP Mod GOP Weak GOP
    CD-5 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-6 Strong GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-7 NA Weak GOP Strong GOP Strong DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Connecticut
    Previous Stop:  California

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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