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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Delaware

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Conservative Ranking


Delaware is the 11th least conservative state, voting 10.1% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Delaware is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Delaware ranks 36th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Strong DEM, 3 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Joe Biden is seeking an eighth term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • None to date

    DEM Candidates

  • Joe Biden - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  DEM incumbent Ruth Ann Minner is term-limited in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Protack

    DEM Candidates

  • John Carney, Jr. - Lieutenant Governor of Delaware
  • Jack Markell - Delaware State Treasurer
  • Frank Infante

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive race in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District AL:  Mike Castle (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • July 25, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 9, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 8 GOP, 13 DEM
        State House - GOP control 22 GOP, 19 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ruth Ann Minner (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  John Carney (D) - 2nd term, running for governor in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Joseph Biden (D) - 7th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Carper (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Mike Castle (R) - 7th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Strong DEM -- Mod DEM --

    Senate
    Class 1 Strong DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 2 -- Solid DEM -- --

    Governor Solid DEM -- Mod DEM --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-AL Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Florida
    Previous Stop:  Connecticut

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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