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Florida
Latest News and Updates
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Conservative Ranking
Florida is the 26th most conservative state, voting
2.5% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Florida's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Florida ranks 28th among the 50 states.
Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona 
Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)
DEM Candidates
Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)
Party nominee -
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to-head polls (state) |
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| Incumbent approval (state) |
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| State partisanship |
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| Other issues |
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Preliminary projection: Weak GOP, 27 Electoral Votes
Senate Race
No race in 2008
Governor's Race
No race in 2008
Competitive House Races
District 16
Incumbent: Democrat Tim Mahoney is running for re-election for the first time in 2008. He
faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Doug Smith - Martin County Commissioner
Hal Valeche - Palm Beach Gardens Councilor
Gayle Harrell - Florida State Representative
Rob Siedlecki - Attorney
Tom Rooney - Attorney
DEM Candidates
Tim Mahoney - Incumbent
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
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| Head-to-head polls |
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| District partisanship |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Jeff Miller (R)-inc vs. Joe Roberts (D)
District 2: Allen Boyd (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 3: Corrine Brown (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 4: Ander Crenshaw (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 5: Virginia Brown-Waite? (R)-inc vs. John Russell (D)
District 6: Cliff Stearns (R)-inc vs. David Bruderly (D)
District 7: John Mica (R)-inc vs. Faye Armitage (D)
District 8: Richard Keller (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) vs. ??? (D)
District 10: Bill Young (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 11: Kathy Castor (D) vs. Tim Fasano (R)
District 12: Adam Putnam (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 13: Vern Buchanan? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
District 14: Connie Mack, IV (R)-inc vs. Larry Byrnes (D)
District 15: OPEN: ??? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 17: Kendrick Meek (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 19: Robert Wexler? (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 20: Debbie Schultz (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart? (R)-inc vs. Raul Martinez (D)
District 22: Ron Klein (D)-inc vs. Allen West (R) - possibly competitive
District 23: Alcee Hastings? (D)-inc vs. Marion Thorpe, Jr. (R)
District 24: Tom Feeney (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
Election Timeline
January 29, 2008 - Presidential primary
May 2, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 26, 2008 - Primary elections
November 4, 2008 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
16 GOP, 9 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
26 GOP, 14 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
78 GOP, 42 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Charlie Crist (R) - 1st term, upd for re-election in 2010
Lt. Governor: Jeff Kottkamp (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Bill Nelson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
Junior Senator: Mel Martinez (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Jeff Miller (R) - 4th term
House District 2: Allen Boyd (D) - 6th term
House District 3: Corrine Brown (D) - 8th term
House District 4: Ander Crenshaw (R) - 4th term
House District 5: Virginia Brown-Waite (R) - 3rd term
House District 6: Cliff Stearns (R) - 10th term
House District 7: John Mica (R) - 8th term
House District 8: Richard Keller (R) - 4th term
House District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) - 1st term
House District 10: Bill Young (R) - 19th term (might retire)
House District 11: Kathy Castor (D) - 1st term
House District 12: Adam Putnam (R) - 4th term
House District 13: Vern Buchanan (R) - 1st term
House District 14: Connie Mack, IV (R) - 2nd term
House District 15: David Weldon (R) - 7th term (retiring)
House District 16: Tim Mahoney (D) - 1st term
House District 17: Kendrick Meek (D) - 3rd term
House District 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) - 10th term
House District 19: Robert Wexler (D) - 6th term
House District 20: Debbie Schultz (D) - 2nd term
House District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) - 8th term
House District 22: Ron Klein (D) - 1st term
House District 23: Alcee Hastings (D) - 8th term
House District 24: Tom Feeney (R) - 3rd term
House District 25: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 3rd term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
| Race |
2000 Result |
2002 Result |
2004 Result |
2006 Result |
|
| President |
Weak GOP |
-- |
Mod GOP |
-- |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Mod Dem |
-- |
-- |
Solid Dem |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Weak GOP |
-- |
|
| Governor |
-- |
Mod GOP |
-- |
Mod GOP |
|
| House |
15 GOP - 8 DEM |
18 GOP - 7 DEM |
18 GOP - 7 DEM |
16 GOP - 9 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-2 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-3 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-4 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-5 |
Solid DEM |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-6 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-7 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-8 |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Mod GOP |
| CD-9 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
| CD-10 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-11 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-12 |
Strong GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-13 |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
Strong GOP |
Weak GOP |
| CD-14 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-15 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
| CD-16 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-17 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-18 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-19 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-20 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-21 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-22 |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-23 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-24 |
NA |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-25 |
NA |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
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BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Georgia
Previous Stop: Delaware
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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