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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Hawaii

Latest News and Updates


Coming soon...

Conservative Ranking


Hawaii is the 10th least conservative state, voting 11.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Hawaii is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Hawaii ranks 21st among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Strong DEM, 4 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Neil Abercrombie (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  Mazie Hirono (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • February 19, 2008 - Democratic presidential primary
  • July 22, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 20, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 4 GOP, 21 DEM
        State House - DEM control 8 GOP, 43 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Linda Lingle (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  James "Duke" Aiona (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Daniel Inouye (D) - 8th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Daniel Akaka (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Neil Abercrombie (D) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 2:  Mazie Hirono (D) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid DEM -- Mod DEM --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --

    Governor -- Mod GOP -- Solid GOP

    House 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Idaho
    Previous Stop:  Georgia

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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