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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Idaho

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Conservative Ranking


Idaho is the 3rd most conservative state, voting 35.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Idaho is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Idaho ranks 11th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 4 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Larry Craig is resigning during his second term and will not seek re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Risch - Idaho Lieutenant Governor
  • Fred Adams
  • Brian Hefner
  • Kent Marmon
  • Richard Phenneger
  • Rex Rammell
  • Scott Syme

    DEM Candidates

  • Larry LaRocco - Former United States Representative from Idaho

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bill Sali? (R) vs. Larry Grant? (D)
  • District 2:  Mike Simpson (R)-inc vs. Jim Hansen (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Democratic presidential primary
  • March 21, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 27, 2008 - Republican presidential primary
  • May 27, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 7 DEM
        State House - GOP control 51 GOP, 19 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Jim Risch (R) - 2nd term, running for Senate in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Larry Craig (R) - 2nd term, resigning in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Michael Crapo (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Bill Sali (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Michael Simpson (R) - 5th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP --

    Governor -- Strong GOP -- Mod GOP

    House 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod GOP
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Illinois
    Previous Stop:  Hawaii

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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