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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Kansas

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Conservative Ranking


Kansas is the 9th most conservative state, voting 22.9% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kansas is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Kansas ranks 20th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 6 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Pat Roberts is up for a 3rd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Pat Roberts - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Lee Jones - Former Lobbyist

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    Incumbent:  Freshman Democratic incumbent Nancy Boyda is running for re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Ryun - Former United States Representative from Kansas

    DEM Candidates

  • Nancy Boyda - Incumbent

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jerry Moran (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 3:  Dennis Moore (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 4:  Todd Tiahrt (R)-inc vs. Donald Betts (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Democratic presidential primary
  • February 9, 2008 - Republican presidential primary
  • June 10, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 5, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 30 GOP, 10 DEM
        State House - GOP control 78 GOP, 47 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Kathleen Sebelius (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Mark Parkinson (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Sam Brownback (R) - 3rd term, will retire in 2011
  • Junior Senator:  Pat Roberts (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Jerry Moran (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Nancy Boyda (D) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Dennis Moore (D) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Todd Tiahrt (R) - 7th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP --

    Governor -- Mod DEM -- Solid DEM

    House 3 GOP - 1 DEM 3 GOP - 1 DEM 3 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP Weak DEM
    CD-3 Weak DEM Weak DEM Strong DEM Solid DEM
    CD-4 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Kentucky
    Previous Stop:  Iowa

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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