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Kentucky
Latest News and Updates
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Conservative Ranking
Kentucky is the 14th most conservative state, voting
17.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Kentucky ranks 7th among the 50 states.
Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona 
Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)
DEM Candidates
Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)
Party nominee -
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
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Preliminary projection: Solid GOP, 8 Electoral Votes
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Mitch McConnell is seeking a 5th term in 2008. He faces no serious primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mitch McConnell - Incumbent
DEM Candidates
Bruce Lunsford - Former Candidate for Kentucky Governor
Kenneth Stepp - Navy Veteran
Michael Cassaro - Physician
David Wylie
David Williams - Former Candidate for U.S. Senate
Greg Fischer
James Rice - Former Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
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Preliminary projection: Strong GOP Hold
Governor's Race
No race in 2008
Competitive House Races
District 3
Incumbent: Freshman DEM incumbent John Yarmouth is seeking a second term in 2008. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Anne Northup - Former U.S. Representative from Kentucky
Corley Everett
Bob DeVore, Jr.
DEM Candidates
John Yarmouth - Incumbent
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Heather Ryan (D)
District 2: OPEN: Brett Guthrie (R) vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
District 4: Geoff Davis? (R)-inc vs. Michael Kelley (D)
District 5: Hal Rogers (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 6: Ben Chandler (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
Election Timeline
January 29, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 20, 2008 - Presidential primary
May 20, 2008 - Primary elections
November 4, 2008 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
22 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND |
| State House - DEM control |
37 GOP, 63 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Steven Beshear (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2011
Lt. Governor: Daniel Mongiardo (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Mitch McConnell (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Jim Bunning (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Edward Whitfield (R) - 10th term
House District 2: Ron Lewis (R) - 8th term (retiring)
House District 3: John Yarmouth (D) - 1st term
House District 4: Geoff Davis (R) - 2nd term
House District 5: Hal Rogers (R) - 14th term
House District 6: Ben Chandler (D) - 2nd term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
| Race |
2000 Result |
2002 Result |
2004 Result |
2006 Result |
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| President |
Solid GOP |
-- |
Solid GOP |
-- |
Senate |
| Class 2 |
-- |
Solid GOP |
-- |
-- |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Weak GOP |
-- |
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Governor
(2003-2007) |
-- |
Strong GOP |
-- |
Solid DEM |
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| House |
5 GOP - 1 DEM |
5 GOP - 1 DEM |
5 GOP - 1 DEM |
4 GOP - 2 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-2 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
| CD-3 |
Mod GOP |
Weak GOP |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-4 |
Strong DEM |
Weak DEM |
Strong GOP |
Mod GOP |
| CD-5 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-6 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
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BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2004 election.
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Lousiana
Previous Stop: Kansas
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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