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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Maryland

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Conservative Ranking


Maryland is the 5th least conservative state, voting 15.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maryland is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Maryland ranks 46th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM, 10 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  Andrew Harris (R) vs. Frank Kratovil, Jr. (D)
  • District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (D)-inc vs. Richard Matthews (R)
  • District 3:  John Sarbanes (D)-inc vs. Thomas Harris (R)
  • District 4:  OPEN:  Donna Edwards (D) vs. Peter James (R)
  • District 5:  Steny Hoyer (D)-inc vs. Collins Bailey (R)
  • District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (R)-inc vs. Jennifer Dougherty (D)
  • District 7:  Elijah Cummings (D)-inc vs. Michael Hargadon (R)
  • District 8:  Christopher van Hollen (D)-inc vs. Steven Hudson (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 12, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • February 12, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 2 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 33 DEM
        State House - DEM control 37 GOP, 104 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Martin O'Malley (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Anthony Brown (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Barbara Mikulski (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Benjamin Cardin (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Wayne Gilchrest (R) - 9th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  John Sarbanes (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Albert Wynn (D) - 8th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 5:  Steny Hoyer (D) - 14th term
  • House District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (R) - 8th term
  • House District 7:  Elijah Cummings (D) - 7th term
  • House District 8:  Christopher van Hollen (D) - 3rd term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid DEM -- Strong DEM --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Strong DEM
    Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --

    Governor -- Weak GOP -- Mod DEM

    House 4 GOP - 4 DEM 2 GOP - 6 DEM 2 GOP - 6 DEM 2 GOP - 6 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-2 Solid GOP Strong DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-3 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-4 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-5 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-6 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-7 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-8 Weak GOP Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Massachusetts
    Previous Stop:  Maine

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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