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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Maine

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Conservative Ranking


Maine is the 9th least conservative state, voting 11.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maine is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Maine ranks 44th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projections:
        Statewide - Solid DEM, 2 Electoral Votes
        CD-1 - Solid DEM, 1 Electoral Vote
        CD-2 - Strong DEM, 1 Electoral Vote

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Susan Collins is running for a 3rd term in 2008.  She faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Susan Collins - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Tom Allen - U. S. Representative from Maine
  • Tom Ledue - High School Administrator

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 2:  Michael Michaud (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 2, 2008 - GOP presidential caucus
  • February 10, 2008 - DEM presidential caucus
  • March 15, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 10, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 17 GOP, 18 DEM
        State House - DEM control 58 GOP, 89 DEM, 2 IND, 2 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Baldacci (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Olympia Snowe (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Susan Collins (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Tom Allen (D) - 6th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 2:  Michael Michaud (D) - 3rd term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Mod DEM -- Mod DEM --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Solid GOP
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --

    Governor -- Mod Dem -- Mod Dem

    House 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid DEM Weak DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Maryland
    Previous Stop:  Louisiana

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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