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 Election 2008 Projections

 


North Dakota

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Conservative Ranking


North Dakota is the 6th most conservative state, voting 24.9% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Dakota is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


North Dakota ranks 15th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 3 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent John Hoeven is up for a third term in 2008.  He currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Hoeven - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Merle Boucher - North Dakota State Representative
  • Time Mathem - North Dakota State Senator

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District AL:  Earl Pomeroy (DNL)-inc vs. Duane Sand (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • April 11, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 10, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 26 GOP, 21 DNL
        State House - GOP control 61 GOP, 33 DNL

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Hoeven (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Jack Dalrymple (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Kent Conrad (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Byron Dorgan (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Earl Pomeroy (D) - 8th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --

    Governor Strong GOP -- Solid GOP --

    House 1 DEM 1 DEM 1 DEM 1 DEM
    CD-AL Mod DEM Weak DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Ohio
    Previous Stop:  North Carolina

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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