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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Nebraska

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Conservative Ranking


Nebraska is the 4th most conservative state, voting 30.8% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nebraska is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Nebraska ranks 16th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 5 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Chuck Hagel is retiring at the end of his second term.  He will not seek re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Johanns - Former Nebraska Governor
  • Pat Flynn - Financial Advisor

    DEM Candidates

  • Larry Marvin - U.S. Air Force Veteran
  • Tony Raimondo
  • James Wilson
  • Scott Kleeb - Former Congressional Nominee

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeff Fortenberry (R)-inc vs. Max Yashirin (D)
  • District 2:  Lee Terry? (R)-inc vs. Jim Esch? (D)
  • District 3:  Adrian Smith? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 9, 2008 - Democratic presidential caucus
  • February 15, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 13, 2008 - Republican presidential caucus
  • May 13, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate 49 members

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Dave Heinaman (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Rick Sheehy (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Chuck Hagel (R) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Ben Nelson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Jeff Fortenberry (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Lee Terry (R) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Adrian Smith (R) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --

    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Solid GOP

    House 3 GOP 3 GOP 3 GOP 3 GOP
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP Solid GOP
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Nevada
    Previous Stop:  Montana

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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