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 Election 2008 Projections

 


New Hampshire

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Conservative Ranking


New Hampshire is the 18th least conservative state, voting 3.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


New Hampshire ranks 48th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP, 4 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent John Sununu is seeking a 2nd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Sununu - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Jeanne Shaheen - Former Governor of New Hampshire

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Mod DEM Gain

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent John Lynch is seeking a 3rd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • None announced

    DEM Candidates

  • John Lynch - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 1


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is seeking re-election for the first time in 2008.  She faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jeb Bradley - Former U.S. Representative from New Hampshire
  • Jim Forsythe - Air Force Veteran
  • John Stephen - Former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Commissioner

    DEM Candidates

  • Carol Shea-Porter - Incumbent

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Paul Hodes (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 8, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • June 13, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 9, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 10 GOP, 14 DEM
        State House - DEM control 161 GOP, 239 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Lynch (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Judd Gregg (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  John Sununu (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Paul Hodes (D) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Weak GOP -- Weak DEM --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Weak GOP -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP --

    Governor Mod DEM Solid GOP Weak DEM Solid DEM

    House 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 DEM
    CD-1 Mod GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak DEM
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Jersey
    Previous Stop:  Nevada

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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