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 Election 2008 Projections

 


New Jersey

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Conservative Ranking


New Jersey is the 13th least conservative state, voting 9.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Jersey's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking


New Jersey ranks 31st among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM, 15 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg is running for a 2nd consecutive term in 2008.  If he wins, it will be his 5th term overall.  He faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Murray Sabrin
  • Joseph Pennacchio - New Jersey State Senator
  • Andrew Unanue

    DEM Candidates

  • Frank Lautenberg - Incumbent
  • Robert Andrews - U.S. Representative from New Jersey
  • Donald Cresitello - Morristown Mayor

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    District 3


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Saxton is retiring at the end of his 12th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Christopher Myers - Lockheed Martin vice president
  • John Kelly - Ocean County Councilman
  • Mario Boemia
  • Justin Murphy
  • Suzanne Penna
  • Sam Dogan

    DEM Candidates

  • John Adler - New Jersey State Senator

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold


    District 7


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Mike Ferguson is retiring at the end of his 4th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kate Whitman - Daughter of Former Governor Christine Todd Whitman
  • Leonard Lance - New Jersey State Senator
  • A.D. Amar
  • Chris Venis - Former Hillsborough Deputy Mayor
  • Victor Sordillo - Warren Mayor
  • Tom Roughneen
  • Martin Marks - Scotch Plains Mayor
  • Michael Hsing - Bridgewater Councilor

    DEM Candidates

  • Linda Stender - New Jersey Assemblywoman
  • Upendra Chivukula - New Jersey Assemblyman

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R)-inc vs. Jeff Van Drew (D)
  • District 4:  Christopher Smith (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  Scott Garrett (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 9:  Steven Rothman(D)-inc vs. Vince Micco (R)
  • District 10:  Donald Payne? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 12:  Rush Holt (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 13:  Albio Sires (D)  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • April 7, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 3, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 6 GOP, 7 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 17 GOP, 23 DEM
        State House - DEM control 32 GOP, 48 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jon Corzine (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2009
  • Senior Senator:  Frank Lautenberg (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Menendez (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Robert Andrews (D) - 9th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Jim Saxton (R) - 12th term (retiring)
  • House District 4:  Christopher Smith (R) - 14th term
  • House District 5:  Scott Garrett (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D) - 11th term
  • House District 7:  Mike Ferguson (R) - 4th term (retiring)
  • House District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D) - 6th term
  • House District 9:  Steven Rothman(D) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Donald Payne (D) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - 7th term
  • House District 12:  Rush Holt (D) - 5th term
  • House District 13:  Albio Sires (D) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid DEM -- Mod DEM --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak DEM -- -- Mod DEM
    Class 2 -- Strong DEM -- --

    Governor
    (2001-2005)
    Mod DEM -- Strong DEM --

    House 6 GOP - 7 DEM 6 GOP - 7 DEM 6 GOP - 7 DEM 6 GOP - 7 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-4 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-5 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-6 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-7 Weak GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP
    CD-8 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-9 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-10 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-11 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-12 Weak DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-13 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Mexico
    Previous Stop:  New Hampshire

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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