New Mexico
Latest News and Updates
Conservative Ranking
New Mexico is the 30th most conservative state , voting for President Bush 1.7% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
STEADY GOP Trend Ranking
27th among the 50 states.
Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)
DEM Candidates
Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)
Party nominee -
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Index Raw value Weight Factor
Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
Incumbent approval (state) . . .
State partisanship . . .
Other issues . . .
Preliminary projection: Weak GOP, 5 Electoral Votes
Senate Race
OPEN SEAT: GOP Candidates
Steve Pearce - U. S. Representative from New Mexico
Heather Wilson - U. S. Representative from New Mexico
DEM Candidates
Tom Udall - U. S. Representative from New Mexico
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Index Raw value Weight Factor
Head-to head polls . . .
Incumbent approval . . .
State partisanship . . .
Other issues . . .
Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Gain
Governor's Race
No race in 2008
Competitive House Races
District 1
OPEN SEAT: GOP Candidates
Darren White - Bernalillo County Sheriff
Joseph Carraro - New Mexico State Senator
DEM Candidates
Martin Heinrich - Albuquerque City Councilor
Robert Pidcock - Attorney
Rebecca Vigil-Giron - Former New Mexico Secretary of State
Michelle Lujan - Former New Mexico Secretary of Health
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Index Raw value Weight Factor Pundit predictions . . . Head-to-head polls . . . District partisanship . . .
Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Gain
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 2: OPEN: ??? (R) vs. Bill McCamley? (D)
District 3: OPEN: ??? (D) vs. Marco Gonzales? (R)
Election Timeline
February 5, 2008 - Democratic presidential primary
February 12, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 3, 2008 - Republican presidential primary
June 3, 2008 - Primary elections
November 4, 2008 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
National Delegation Senators 1 GOP , 1 DEM Representatives 2 GOP , 1 DEM State Government Governor DEM Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM State Senate - DEM control 18 GOP , 24 DEM State House - DEM control 28 GOP , 42 DEM
Current Office Holders
Governor: Bill Richardson (D) - 2nd term, (running for President)
Lt. Governor: Diane Denish (D) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Pete Domenici (R) - 6th term, not seeking re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Jeff Bingaman, Jr. (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2012
House District 1: Heather Wilson (R) - 5th term (running for Senate)
House District 2: Steven Pearce (R) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
House District 3: Tom Udall (D) - 5th term (running for Senate)
Historical Partisan Snapshot
Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result
President Weak DEM -- Weak GOP --
Senate
Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Solid DEM
Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --
Governor -- Solid DEM -- Solid DEM
House 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM
CD-1 Mod GOP Strong GOP Mod GOP Weak GOP
CD-2 Solid GOP Strong GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
CD-3 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
BOLD - party turnover
Race ratings:
"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
Tour The 50 States
New York
New Jersey
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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