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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Nevada

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Conservative Ranking


Nevada is the 28th most conservative state, voting 0.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nevada is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Nevada ranks 45th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP, 5 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D)-inc vs. Greg Nance (R)
  • District 2:  Dean Heller? (R)-inc vs. Jill Talbot Derby (D)
  • District 3:  Jon Porter (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 19, 2008 - Presidential caucus
  • May 16, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 12, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 11 GOP, 10 DEM
        State House - DEM control 15 GOP, 27 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jim Gibbons (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Brian Krolicki (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Harry Reid (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  John Ensign (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Dean Heller (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Jon Porter (R) - 2nd term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Weak GOP -- Weak GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Strong GOP
    Class 3 -- -- Solid DEM --

    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Weak GOP

    House 4 GOP - 2 DEM 6 GOP - 2 DEM 6 GOP - 2 DEM 4 GOP - 4 DEM
    CD-1 Mod DEM Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod GOP
    CD-3 NA Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Hampshire
    Previous Stop:  Nebraska

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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