Political Weblog | 2008 Projections | Election Calendar | Primary Table | Edicts for 2008
Projection Formulas | Previous Results | Poll Vault | The Blogging Caesar Bio
.
 Election 2008 Projections

 


Ohio

Latest News and Updates

Coming soon...

Conservative Ranking

Ohio is the 29th most conservative state, voting for President Bush but 0.4% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

Ohio ranks 39th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House

GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after completion of the fifty-state tour

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM, 20 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race

    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race

    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races

    District 1

    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Steve Chabot is running for his 8th term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Steve Chabot - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Steven Driehaus - Ohio State Senator

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after completion of the fifty-state tour

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    District 15

    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce is retiring after her 8th term in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Steve Stivers - Ohio State Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • Mary Jo Kilroy - 2006 Congressional Nominee

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after completion of the fifty-state tour

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    District 16

    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Ralph Regula is retiring after his 18th term in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kirk Schuring - Ohio State Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • John Boccieri - Ohio State Senator

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after completion of the fifty-state tour

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    District 18

    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Zack Space seeks re-election for the first time in 2008.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Fred Dailey - Former Ohio Director of Agriculture

    DEM Candidates

  • Zack Space - Incumbent

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after completion of the fifty-state tour

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after completion of the fifty-state tour

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Hold

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs. Victoria Wulsin (D)
  • District 3:  Mike Turner (R)-inc vs. Jane Mitakides (D)
  • District 4:  Jim Jordan (R)-inc vs. Mike Carroll (D)
  • District 5:  Bob Latta (R)-inc vs. George Mays (D)
  • District 6:  Charlie Wilson (D)-inc vs. Richard Stobbs (R)
  • District 7:  OPEN:  Steve Austria (R) vs. Sharen Swartz Neuhardt (D)
  • District 8:  John Boehner (R)-inc vs. Nick von Stein (D)
  • District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D)-inc vs. Bradley Leavitt (R)
  • District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D)-inc vs. Jim Trakas (R)
  • District 11:  Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D)-inc vs. Thomas Pekarek (R)
  • District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R)-inc vs. David Robinson (D)
  • District 13:  Betty Sutton (D) vs. David Potter (R)
  • District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R)-inc vs. William O'Neill (D)
  • District 17:  Tim Ryan (D)-inc  Duane Grassell (R)

    Election Timeline

  • January 4, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 4, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • March 4, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown

      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 11 GOP, 7 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 11 DEM
        State House - GOP control 60 GOP, 39 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Ted Strickland (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Lee Fisher (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  George Voinovich (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Sherrod Brown (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Steve Chabot (R) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Mike Turner (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 4:  Jim Jordan (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Bob Latta (R) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 6:  Charles Wilson (D) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  Dave Hobson (R) - 9th term (retiring)
  • House District 8:  John Boehner (R) - 9th term
  • House District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D) - 13th term
  • House District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D) - 6th term
  • House District 11:  Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D) - 5th term
  • House District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R) - 4th term
  • House District 13:  Betty Sutton (D) - 1st term
  • House District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R) - 6th term
  • House District 15:  Deborah Pryce (R) - 8th term (retiring)
  • House District 16:  Ralph Regula (R) - 18th term (retiring)
  • House District 17:  Tim Ryan (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 18:  Zack Space (D) - 1st term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result
    President Weak GOP -- Weak GOP --
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Strong DEM
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP --
    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Solid DEM
    House 11 GOP - 8 DEM 12 GOP - 6 DEM 12 GOP - 6 DEM 11 GOP - 7 DEM
    CD-1 Mod GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod GOP
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP
    CD-3 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-4 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-5 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-6 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-7 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-8 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-9 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-10 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-11 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-12 Mod GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-13 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-14 Solid DEM Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-15 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP
    CD-16 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-17 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-18 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid DEM
    CD-19 Solid GOP NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    • Tour The 50 States

    Next Stop:  Oklahoma
    Previous Stop:  North Dakota

    Special Thanks to...

    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic

    • 2008 Projections

    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com

    2006 Projection Results

    2004 Projection Results


    2008 Projections
    State-by-State
  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming