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Pennsylvania
Latest News and Updates
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Conservative Ranking
Pennsylvania is the 17th least conservative state, voting 5.0% less Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Pennsylvania is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Pennsylvania ranks 34th among the 50 states.
Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona 
Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)
DEM Candidates
Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)
Party nominee -
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
Raw value |
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Factor |
| Head-to-head polls (state) |
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| Incumbent approval (state) |
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| State partisanship |
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| Other issues |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM, 21 Electoral Votes
Senate Race
No race in 2008
Governor's Race
No race in 2008
Competitive House Races
District 4
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire is running for re-election for the first time in 2008. He faces no primary
opposition.
GOP Candidates
Melissa Hart - Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
DEM Candidates
Jason Altmire - Incumbent
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
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| Pundit predictions |
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| Head-to-head polls |
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| District partisanship |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold
District 10
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Chris Carney seeks just his second term in 2008. He faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Chris Hackett
Dan Meuser
DEM Candidates
Chris Carney - Incumbent
Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
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| Head-to-head polls |
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| District partisanship |
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Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Bob Brady (D)-inc vs. Mike Muhammad (R)
District 2: Chaka Fattah (D)-inc vs. Michael Livingston (R)
District 3: Phil English (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 5: OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D)
District 6: Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs. Robert Roggio (D) - possibly competitive
District 7: Joseph Sestak (D)-inc vs. Craig Williams (R)
District 8: Patrick Murphy (D)-inc vs. Thomas Manion (R) - possibly competitive
District 9: Bill Shuster (R)-inc vs. Tony Barr (D)
District 11: Paul Kanjorski (D)-inc vs. Louis Barletta (R)
District 12: John Murtha (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 13: Allyson Schwartz (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 14: Mike Doyle (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 15: Charlie Dent (R)-inc vs. Sam Bennett (D)
District 16: Joseph Pitts (R)-inc vs. Bruce Slater (D)
District 17: Tim Holden (D)-inc vs. Toni Gilhooley (R)
District 18: Tim Murphy (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 19: Todd Platts (R)-inc vs. Phil Avillo, Jr. (D)
Election Timeline
February 12, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
April 22, 2008 - Presidential primary
April 22, 2008 - Primary elections
November 4, 2008 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
8 GOP, 11 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
29 GOP, 21 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
101 GOP,102 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Ed Rendell (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
Lt. Governor: Catherine Knoll (D) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Arlen Spector (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Bob Casey, Jr. (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
House District 1: Bob Brady (D) - 5th term
House District 2: Chaka Fattah (D) - 7th term
House District 3: Phil English (R) - 7th term
House District 4: Jason Altmire (D) - 1st term
House District 5: John Peterson (R) - 6th term (retiring)
House District 6: Jim Gerlach (R) - 4th term
House District 7: Joseph Sestak (D) - 1st term
House District 8: Patrick Murphy (D) - 1st term
House District 9: Bill Shuster (R) - 4th term
House District 10: Chris Carney (D) - 1st term
House District 11: Paul Kanjorski (D) - 12th term (might retire)
House District 12: John Murtha (D) - 18th term
House District 13: Allyson Schwartz (D) - 2nd term
House District 14: Mike Doyle (D) - 7th term
House District 15: Charlie Dent (R) - 2nd term
House District 16: Joseph Pitts (R) - 6th term
House District 17: Tim Holden (D) - 8th term
House District 18: Tim Murphy (R) - 3rd term
House District 19: Todd Platts (R) - 4th term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
| Race |
2000 Result |
2002 Result |
2004 Result |
2006 Result |
|
| President |
Weak Dem |
-- |
Weak Dem |
-- |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Mod GOP |
-- |
-- |
Solid Dem |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Strong GOP |
-- |
|
| Governor |
-- |
Mod Dem |
-- |
Solid DEM |
|
| House |
11 GOP - 10 DEM |
12 GOP - 7 DEM |
12 GOP - 7 DEM |
8 GOP - 11 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-2 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-3 |
Solid DEM |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
| CD-4 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-5 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-6 |
Solid DEM |
Weak GOP |
Weak GOP |
Weak GOP |
| CD-7 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong DEM |
| CD-8 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Strong GOP |
Weak DEM |
| CD-9 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-10 |
Mod GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Mod DEM |
| CD-11 |
Solid DEM |
Strong DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-12 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-13 |
Mod DEM |
Weak DEM |
Strong DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-14 |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-15 |
Mod GOP |
Mod GOP |
Solid GOP |
Mod GOP |
| CD-16 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-17 |
Solid GOP |
Weak DEM |
Weak DEM |
Solid DEM |
| CD-18 |
Solid DEM |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-19 |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
Solid GOP |
| CD-20 |
Solid DEM |
NA |
NA |
NA |
| CD-21 |
Solid GOP |
NA |
NA |
NA |
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BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Rhode Island
Previous Stop: Oregon
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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