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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Rhode Island

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Conservative Ranking


Rhode Island is the 2nd least conservative state, voting 23.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Rhode Island's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking


Rhode Island ranks 26th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM, 4 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is running for a 3rd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • none

    DEM Candidates

  • Jack Reed - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Patrick Kennedy (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  James Langevin (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • March 4, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • June 25, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 9, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 5 GOP, 33 DEM
        State House - DEM control 13 GOP, 61 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Don Carcieri (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Elizabeth Roberts (D) - 1st term, term-limited in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Jack Reed (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Patrick Kennedy (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  James Langevin (D) - 4th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid Dem -- Solid Dem --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Mod Dem
    Class 2 -- Solid DEM -- --

    Governor -- Strong GOP -- Weak GOP

    House 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  South Carolina
    Previous Stop:  Pennsylvania

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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