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 Election 2008 Projections

 


South Dakota

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Conservative Ranking


South Dakota is the 11th most conservative state, voting 19.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Dakota is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


South Dakota ranks 18th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 3 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Timothy Johnson is running for a 3rd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joel Dykstra - South Dakota State Representative
  • Charles Gonyo
  • Sam Kephart

    DEM Candidates

  • Timothy Johnson - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Stephanie Sandlin (D)-inc vs. Chris Lien (R)

    Election Timeline


  • March 25, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 3, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • June 3, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 20 GOP, 15 DEM
        State House - GOP control 50 GOP, 20 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Rounds (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Dennis Daugaard (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Tim Johnson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  John Thune (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Stephanie Herseth (D) - 3rd term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Weak DEM -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak GOP --

    Governor -- Solid GOP -- Solid GOP

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 DEM 1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Mod GOP Mod Dem Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Tennessee
    Previous Stop:  South Carolina

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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