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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Utah

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Conservative Ranking


Utah is the most conservative state, voting 43.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Utah is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Utah ranks 4th among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 5 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jon Huntsman is seeking a second term in 2008.  He faces no serious primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jon Huntsman, Jr. - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Matt Frandson
  • Monty Nafoosi
  • Bob Springmeyer

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Rob Bishop (R)-inc vs. Morgan Bowen (D)
  • District 2:  Jim Matheson (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 3:  Christopher Cannon? (R)-inc vs. Bennion Spencer (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 5, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • March 17, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 24, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 8 DEM
        State House - GOP control 56 GOP, 19 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jon Huntsman, Jr. (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Gary Herbert (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Orrin Hatch (R) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Bob Bennett (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Rob Bishop (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Jim Matheson (D) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Christopher Cannon (R) - 6th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Solid GOP
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP --

    Governor Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    House 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM 2 GOP - 1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-2 Strong DEM Weak DEM Strong DEM Solid DEM
    CD-3 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Vermont
    Previous Stop:  Texas

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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