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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Washington

Latest News and Updates


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Conservative Ranking


Washington is the 12th least conservative state, voting 9.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Washington is trending is DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking


Washington ranks 43rd among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Strong DEM, 11 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    No race in 2008

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Christine Gregoire seeks re-election for the first time in 2008.  She faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dino Rossi - Former Washington State Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • Christine Gregoire - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 8


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Dave Reichert is seeking a 3rd term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dave Reichert - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Darcy Burner - Former Congressional Nominee
  • James Vaughn - Retired U. S. Army Major

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jay Inslee (D)-inc vs. Larry Ishmael (R)
  • District 2:  Rick Larsen (D)-inc vs. Rick Bart (R)
  • District 3:  Brian Baird (D)-inc vs. Michael Delavar (R)
  • District 4:  Richard "Doc" Hastings (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  Cathy McMorris (R)-inc vs. Peter Goldmark (D)
  • District 6:  Norman Dicks? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 7:  Jim McDermott (D)-inc vs. Steve Beren (R)
  • District 9:  Adam Smith (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • February 9, 2008 - Presidential caucus
  • February 19, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • June 6, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 19, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 17 GOP, 32 DEM
        State House - DEM control 35 GOP, 63 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Brad Owen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Patty Murray (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Maria Cantwell (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Jay Inslee (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Rick Larsen (D) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Brian Baird (D) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Richard "Doc" Hastings (R) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Cathy McMorris (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Norman Dicks (D) - 16th term (might retire)
  • House District 7:  Jim McDermott (D) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 8:  Dave Reichert (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 9:  Adam Smith (D) - 6th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Mod Dem -- Mod Dem --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak Dem -- -- Solid Dem
    Class 3 -- -- Strong Dem --

    Governor Solid DEM -- Weak DEM --

    House 3 GOP - 6 DEM 3 GOP - 6 DEM 3 GOP - 6 DEM 3 GOP - 6 DEM
    CD-1 Strong DEM Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Mod Dem Mod DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-3 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-4 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP
    CD-5 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-6 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-7 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-8 Solid GOP Solid GOP Weak GOP Weak GOP
    CD-9 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  West Virginia
    Previous Stop:  Virginia

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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