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 Election 2008 Projections

 


West Virginia

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Conservative Ranking


West Virginia is the 20th most conservative state, voting 10.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, West Virginia is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


West Virginia ranks 2nd among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP, 5 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller, IV is running for a fifth term in 2008.  He faces no serious primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jay Wolfe - Former Senate Nominee

    DEM Candidates

  • Jay Rockefeller, IV - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin, II seeks re-election for the first time in 2008.  He faces no serious primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Russ Weeks - Former West Virginia State Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • Joe Manchin, II - Incumbent

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2008

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Alan Mollohan (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  Shelley Capito (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D)-inc vs. Gary "Marty" Gearheart (R)

    Election Timeline


  • January 26, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 13, 2008 - Presidential primary
  • May 13, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 11 GOP, 23 DEM
        State House - DEM control 28 GOP, 72 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Joe Manchin, II (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Robert Byrd (D) - 9th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Jay Rockefeller, IV (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Alan Mollohan (D) - 13th term
  • House District 2:  Shelley Capito (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D) - 16th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Mod GOP -- Mod GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid DEM -- -- Solid DEM
    Class 2 -- Solid DEM -- --

    Governor Weak Dem -- Solid DEM --

    House 1 GOP - 2 DEM 1 GOP - 2 DEM 1 GOP - 2 DEM 1 GOP - 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM
    CD-2 Mod GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP
    CD-3 Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM Solid DEM

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Wisconsin
    Previous Stop:  Washington

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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