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 Election 2008 Projections

 


Wyoming

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Conservative Ranking


Wyoming is the 2nd most conservative state, voting 37.3% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wyoming is trending REPUBLICAN.

GOP Trend Ranking


Wyoming ranks FIRST among the 50 states.

Race for the White House


GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - U. S. Senator from Arizona  
  • Mike Huckabee - Former Governor of Arkansas
  • Ron Paul - U. S. Congressman from Texas (CD-14)
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rudy Giuliani - Former Mayor of New York City
  • Fred Thompson - Former U. S. Senator from Tennessee
  • Duncan Hunter - U. S. Congressman from California (CD-52)

    DEM Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - U. S. Senator from New York
  • Barack Obama - U. S. Senator from Illinois
  • Mike Gravel - Former U. S. Senator from Alaska
  • John Edwards - Former U. S. Senator from North Carolina (withdrew)
  • Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico (withdrew)
  • Dennis Kucinich - U. S. Congressman from Ohio (CD-10) (withdrew)

    Party nominee -

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to-head polls (state) . . .
        Incumbent approval (state) . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP, 3 Electoral Votes

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Mike Enzi is up for a third term in 2008.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Enzi - Incumbent

    DEM Candidates

  • Dale Groutage - Former Senate Nominee
  • Ted Ladd - Former Congressional Nominee
  • Christopher Rothfuss - Professor

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold


    Special Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP Senator John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate after the late Senator Craig Thomas died on June 4, 2007.  Barrasso seeks election in 2008 to serve out the remainder of Thomas' term.  The next regular election for this seat will be in 2012.  Barrasso currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Barrasso - Interim Senator

    DEM Candidates

  • Keith Goodenough - Former Wyoming State Senator
  • Nick Carter - Attorney
  • Albert Hamburg - Frequent Candidate

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls . . .
        Incumbent approval . . .
        State partisanship . . .
        Other issues . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2008

    Competitive House Races


    District AL


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Barbara Cubin is retiring at the end of her 7th term.  She is not seeking re-election in 2008.

    GOP Candidates

  • Cynthia Lummis - Former Wyoming State Treasurer
  • Kenn Gilchrist
  • Becket Hinkley - Former Wyoming State Representative
  • Dan Zwonitzer - Former Wyoming State Representative
  • Swede Nelson
  • Mark Gordon
  • Bill Winney - Retired Navy Captain

    DEM Candidates

  • Gary Trauner - Former Congressional Nominee

    Pundit Predictions - punditry to be tracked after party primaries

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions . . .
        Head-to-head polls . . .
        District partisanship . . .

    Preliminary projection:  Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    None

    Election Timeline


  • March 8, 2008 - Democratic presidential caucus
  • May 10, 2008 - Republican presidential primary
  • May 30, 2008 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 19, 2008 - Primary elections
  • November 4, 2008 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 23 GOP, 7 DEM
        State House - GOP control 43 GOP, 17 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Dave Freudenthal (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  John Barrasso (R) - interim, special election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Mike Enzi (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Barbara Cubin (R) - 6th term (retiring)

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


      Race 2000 Result 2002 Result 2004 Result 2006 Result

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid GOP -- -- Solid GOP
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- --

    Governor -- Weak Dem -- Solid DEM

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-AL Solid GOP Solid GOP Strong GOP Weak GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  • Tour The 50 States


    Previous Stop:  Wisconsin

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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