Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Race Ratings

Senate Ratings

Senate contests, listed most vulnerable to least vulnerable, last updated Monday, May 29.

Rank	Last	Race	Projection	Rating
Extremely Vulnerable
1	1	Pennsylvania	Bob Casey, Jr. over Rick Santorum	Weak DEM Gain
2	2	Montana	Jon Tester over Conrad Burns	Weak DEM Gain
3	3	Missouri	Jim Talent over Claire McCaskill	Weak GOP Hold
Highly Vulnerable
4	4	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee over Sheldon Whitehouse	Weak GOP Hold
5	5	Ohio	Mike DeWine over Sherrod Brown	DeWine +3.7
6	6	Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar over Mark Kennedy	Weak DEM Hold
Moderately Vulnerable
7	7	Washington	Maria Cantwell over Mike McGavick	Weak DEM Hold
8	8	New Jersey	Robert Menendez over Tom Kean, Jr.	Weak DEM Hold
Mildly Vulnerable
9	9	Michigan	Debbie Stabenow over Bouchard or Butler	Weak DEM Hold
10	10	Nebraska	Ben Nelson over Peter Ricketts	Weak DEM Hold
11	11	Tennessee	Bryant/Corker/Hilleary over Harold Ford	Weak GOP Hold
12	12	Maryland	Ben Cardin over Michael Steele	Weak DEM Hold
Slightly Vulnerable
13	14	Arizona	Jon Kyl over Jim Pederson	Strong GOP Hold
14	13	Nevada	John Ensign over Jack Carter	Strong GOP Hold
15	15	Wisconsin	Herb Kohl over Tim Michels	Strong DEM Hold
16	16	Florida	Bill Nelson over Katherine Harris	Strong DEM Hold
Not Vulnerable
17	17	West Virginia	Robert Byrd over ???	Strong DEM Hold
18	18	Virginia	George Allen over James Webb, Jr.	Strong GOP Hold
19	19	New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman over Tom Binavides	Strong DEM Hold
20	20	Connecticut	Joeseph Lieberman over ???	Strong DEM Hold
21	21	Hawaii	Daniel Akaka over ???	Strong DEM Hold
22	22	Maine	Olympia Snowe over Eric Mehnert	Strong GOP Hold
Set in Stone
23	23	North Dakota	Kent Conrad over Dwight Grotberg	Strong DEM Hold
24	25	Vermont	Bernie Sanders over Park and Drown	Strong IND Hold
25	26	California	Dianne Feinstein over Bill Mundell	Strong DEM Hold
26	27	New York	Hillary Clinton over Spencer or McFarland	Strong DEM Hold
27	28	Utah	Orrin Hatch over Pete Ashdown	Strong GOP Hold
28	29	Texas	Kay Hutchison over Barbara Radnofsky	Strong GOP Hold
29	30	Mississippi	Trent Lott over Erik Fleming	Strong GOP Hold
30	24	Indiana	Richard Lugar - unopposed	Strong GOP Hold
31	31	Delaware	Tom Carper over Jan Ting	Strong DEM Hold
32	32	Wyoming	Craig Thomas over Dale Groutage	Strong GOP Hold
33	33	Massachusetts	Ted Kennedy over Chase or Scott	Strong DEM Hold

Governor Ratings

Statehouse contests, listed most vulnerable to least vulnerable, last updated Monday, May 29.

Rank	Last	Race	Projection	Rating
Extremely Vulnerable
1	1	New York	Eliot Spitzer over ???	Strong DEM Gain
2	3	Massachusetts	??? over ???	Weak DEM Gain
3	2	Ohio	Ted Strickland over Ken Blackwell	Weak DEM Gain
4	4	Maryland	Martin O'Malley over Robert Ehrlich	Weak DEM Gain
5	5	Arkansas	Mike Beebe over Asa Hutchinson	Weak DEM Gain
6	6	Colorado	Bill Ritter over Bob Beauprez	Weak DEM Gain
7	7	Iowa	Chet Culver over Jim Nussle	Weak DEM Hold
8	8	Illinois	Rod Blagojevich over Judy Topinka	Weak DEM Hold
9	9	California	Arnold Schwarzenegger over Phil Angelides	Weak GOP Hold
10	10	Michigan	Jennifer Granholm over Dick DeVos	Weak DEM Hold
Highly Vulnerable
11	12	Alaska	Frank Murkowski? over ???	Weak GOP Hold
Moderately Vulnerable
12	11	Pennsylvania	Ed Rendell over Lynn Swann	Weak DEM Hold
13	13	Wisconsin	James Doyle over Mark Green	Weak DEM Hold
14	14	Florida	Crist or Gallagher over Davis or Smith	Weak GOP Hold
15	15	Maine	John Baldacci over ??? and Alex Hammer	Weak DEM Hold
16	16	Minnesota	Tim Pawlenty over Hatch or Kelley	Weak GOP Hold
17	17	Nevada	Jim Gibbons over Dina Titus	Weak GOP Hold
Mildly Vulnerable
18	20	Oregon	Ted Kulongoski over Ron Saxton	Weak DEM Hold
19	18	Hawaii	Linda Lingle over ???	Weak GOP Hold
Slightly Vulnerable
20	19	Rhode Island	Don Carcieri over Charles Fogarty	Weak GOP Hold
21	21	Oklahoma	Brad Henry over Ernest Istook	Weak DEM Hold
22	22	Georgia	Sonny Perdue over Cathy Cox	Weak GOP Hold
23	23	Alabama	Bob Riley over Baxley or Siegleman	Weak GOP Hold
24	24	Vermont	Jim Douglas over Scudder Parker	Strong GOP Hold
25	25	Kansas	Kathleen Sebelius over Jim Barnett	Strong DEM Hold
Not Vulnerable
26	26	New Hampshire	John Lynch over Jim Coburn	Strong DEM Hold
27	27	South Carolina	Mark Sanford over Moore or Willis	Strong GOP Hold
28	28	Arizona	Janet Nepolitano over Goldwater or Florez	Strong DEM Hold
29	29	Tennessee	Phil Bredesen over ???	Strong DEM Hold
Set in Stone
30	30	Texas	Rick Perry over Bell & Strayhorn & Friedman	Strong GOP Hold
31	31	South Dakota	Mike Rounds over ???	Strong GOP Hold
32	32	New Mexico	Bill Richardson over J.R. Damron	Strong DEM Hold
33	33	Wyoming	Dave Freudenthal over ???	Strong DEM Hold
34	34	Connecticut	Jodi Rell over DeStefano or Malloy	Strong GOP Hold
35	35	Nebraska	Dave Heineman over David Hahn	Strong GOP Hold
36	36	Idaho	Butch Otter over Brady or Chaney	Strong GOP Hold

House Ratings

Contested House races, listed from the most vulnerable, last updated Friday, May 19.

Rank	Last	Race	Projection	Rating
Extremely Vulnerable
1	1	Vermont CD-1	P. Welch over M. Rainville	Strong DEM Gain
2	2	Illinois CD-8	David McSweeney over Melissa Bean	Weak GOP Gain
3	3	Iowa CD-1	??? over ???	Weak DEM Gain
4	4	Colorado CD-7	Earl Perlmutter over Rick O'Donnell	Weak DEM Gain
5	5	New Mexico CD-1	Patricia Madrid over Heather Wilson	Weak DEM Gain
6	6	New York CD-24	??? over ???	Weak DEM Gain
7	7	Pennsylvania CD-6	Lois Murphy over Jim Gerlach	Weak DEM Gain
8	8	Ohio CD-18	Robert Ney over Zack Space	Ney +4.0
9	9	Arizona CD-8	??? over ???	Weak GOP Hold
10	10	Indiana CD-9	Michael Sodrel over Baron Hill	Weak GOP Hold
11	11	Indiana CD-8	John Hostettler over Brad Ellsworth	Weak GOP Hold
Highly Vulnerable
12	12	Connecticut CD-2	Rob Simmons over Joe Courtney	Weak GOP Hold
13	13	Georgia CD-12	John Barrow over Max Burns	Weak DEM Hold
14	14	Connecticut CD-4	Christopher Shays over Diane Farrell	Weak GOP Hold
15	15	Georgia CD-8	Jim Marshall over "Mac" Collins	Weak DEM Hold
16	16	Arizona CD-5	J.D. Hayworth over Harry Mitchell	Weak GOP Hold
17	17	Washington CD-8	Dan Reichert over Darcy Burner	Weak GOP Hold
18	18	Ohio CD-6	Charlie Wilson over Chuck Blasdel	Wilson +5.0
19	19	Florida CD-22	Clay Shaw over Ron Klein	Weak GOP Hold
Moderately Vulnerable
20	20	New York CD-29	Randy Kuhl over ???	Weak GOP Hold
21	21	Minnesota CD-6	Jim Knoblach over Elwyn Tinklenberg	Weak GOP Hold
22	22	Wisconsin CD-8	Gard or McCormick over ???	Weak GOP Hold
23	23	N Carolina CD-11	Charles Taylor over Heath Shuler	Weak GOP Hold
24	24	Louisiana CD-3	Charlie Melancon over Craig Romero	Weak DEM Hold
25	25	Colorado CD-3	John Salazar over Scott Tipton	Weak DEM Hold