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California
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Field Poll: Feinstein 55%, Mountjoy 33% - 11/01/06
Gov: Field Poll: Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 33% - 11/01/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger 53%, Angelides 40% - 10/30/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Feinstein +20 (up 1) - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Feinstein 59%, Mountjoy 33% - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Schwarzenegger 55%, Angelides 37% - 10/27/06
Gov: Public Policy Institute: Schwarzenegger 48%, Angelides 30% - 10/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Schwarzenegger -9 (unchanged) - 10/23/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 40% - 10/17/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Feinstein +19 (up 8) - 10/07/06
Gov: Policy Research Institute: Schwarzenegger 46%, Angelides 33% - 10/04/06
Sen: Field Poll: Feinstein 57%, Mountjoy 29% - 10/03/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Feinstein 53%, Mountjoy 23% - 10/02/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 36% - 10/02/06
Sen: Los Angeles Times: Feinstein 54%, Mountjoy 36% - 10/02/06
Gov: Los Angeles Times: Schwarzenegger 50%, Angelides 33% - 10/02/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Feinstein 55%, Mountjoy 35% - 09/28/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Schwarzenegger 52%, Angelides 38% - 09/28/06
Gov: Public Policy Institute: Schwarzenegger 46%, Angelides 31% - 09/28/06
Gov: Field Poll: Schwarzenegger 44%, Angelides 34% - 09/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Schwarzenegger -9 (unchanged) - 09/25/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Feinstein 58%, Mountjoy 35% - 09/12/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger 47%, Angelides 39% - 09/12/06
Gov: Public Policy Institute: Schwarzenegger 45%, Angelides 32% - 09/04/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/31/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger 48%, Angelides 42% - 08/31/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 08/28/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/28/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Schwarzenegger 52%, Angelides 38% - 08/28/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Schwarzenegger -9 (up 8) - 08/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Feinstein +11 (down 12) - 08/18/06
CD-50: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to possibly competitive - 08/08/06
Sen: Field Poll: Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/03/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger 47%, Angelides 41% - 07/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Feinstein +23 (up 5) - 07/26/06
Gov: Field Poll: Schwarzenegger 45%, Angelides 37% - 07/25/06
Gov: Field Poll approval: Schwarzenegger +8 - 07/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Schwarzenegger -17 (up 2) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/10/06
Conservative Ranking
California is the 8th least conservative state, voting
12.4% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
California ranks 42nd among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: DEM incumbent Dianne Feinstein is seeking a third term in 2006. She faced no primary
opposition.
GOP Candidates
Richard Mountjoy 
Democrat Candidates
Dianne Feinstein - Incumbent
Martin Church
Colleen Fernald
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Dianne Feinstein +23.9
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Mountjoy |
Feinstein |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
31% |
60% |
| Field Poll |
11/01 |
33% |
55% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
25.5 |
80% |
20.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
20 |
15% |
3.0 |
| State partisanship |
9.9 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Feinstein +23.9 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Feinstein +22.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Feinstein +24.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Feinstein +22.4 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 3, 2006 |
Feinstein +21.2 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Feinstein +20.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Feinstein +19.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 12, 2006 |
Feinstein +20.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 28, 2006 |
Feinstein +19.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Feinstein +23.0 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 3, 2006 |
Feinstein +24.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Feinstein +26.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| July 10, 2006 |
Feinstein +25.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking to be re-elected to his first full term in 2006.
He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Arnold Schwarzenegger - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Phil Angelides - California State Treasurer
Steve Westly - California State Controller
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Arnold Schwarzenegger +10.9
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Schwarzenegger |
Angelides |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
53% |
38% |
| Field Poll |
11/01 |
33% |
49% |
| Rasmussen |
10/28 |
53% |
40% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
14.7 |
80% |
11.7 |
| Incumbent approval |
-9 |
15% |
-1.4 |
| State partisanship |
-9.9 |
5% |
-0.5 |
| Other issues |
Adjustment: |
1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Schwarzenegger +10.9 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +12.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +11.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +10.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +9.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 17, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +11.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 4, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +12.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +11.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +10.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 27, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +9.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 12, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +9.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 4, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +9.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 28, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +8.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +3.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| July 25, 2006 |
Schwarzenegger +1.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| July 23, 2006 |
Angelides +1.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 10, 2006 |
Angelides +1.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Last Minute Competitive House Races
District 11: Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs. Jerry McNerney (D)
Election Projection: Richard Pombo +0.6
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. John Jones (R)
District 2: Wally Herger (R)-inc vs. A.J. Shekhon (D)
District 3: Daniel Lungren (R)-inc vs. Bill Durston (D)
District 4: John Doolittle (R)-inc vs. Charles Brown (D) - possible competitive race
District 5: Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. Xiaochin Claire Yan (R)
District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc vs. Todd Hooper (R)
District 7: George Miller (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc vs. Michael DeNunzio (R)
District 9: Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. J.D. denDulk (R)
District 10: Ellen Tauscher (D)-inc vs. Darcy Linn (R)
District 12: Tom Lantos (D)-inc vs. Michael Moloney (R)
District 13: Pete Stark (D)-inc vs. George Bruno (R)
District 14: Anna Eshoo (D)-inc vs. Rob Smith (R)
District 15: Michael Honda (D)-inc vs. Raymond Chukwu (R)
District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc vs. Charel Winston (R)
District 17: Sam Farr (D)-inc vs. Anthony de Maio (R)
District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc vs. John Kanno (R)
District 19: George Radanovich (R)-inc vs. T.J. Cox (D)
District 20: Jim Costa (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 21: Devin Nunes (R)-inc vs. Ernest Haze (D)
District 22: OPEN: Kevin McCarthy (R) vs. Sharon Beery (D)
District 23: Lois Capps (D)-inc vs. Victor Tognazzini (R)
District 24: Elton Gallegly (R)-inc vs. Jill Martinez (D)
District 25: Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. Roberto Rodriguez (D)
District 26: David Dreier (R)-inc vs. Cynthia Matthews (D)
District 27: Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. Peter Hankwitz (R)
District 28: Howard Berman (D)-inc vs. Stanley Kesselman (R)
District 29: Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. Bill Bodel (R)
District 30: Henry Waxman (D)-inc vs. David Jones (R)
District 31: Xavier Becerra (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 32: Hilda Solis (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 33: Diane Watson (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc vs. Wayne Miller (R)
District 35: Maxine Waters (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 36: Jane Harman (D)-inc vs. Brian Gibson (R)
District 37: Juanita Millender-McDonald (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 38: Grace Napolitano (D)-inc vs. Sidney Street (R)
District 39: Linda Sanchez (D)-inc vs. James Andion (R)
District 40: Edward Royce (R)-inc vs. Florice Hoffman (D)
District 41: Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. Louie Contreras (D)
District 42: Gary Miller (R)-inc (unopposed)
District 43: Joe Baca (D)-inc vs. Scott Folkens (R)
District 44: Kenneth Calvert (R)-inc vs. Louis Vandenberg (D)
District 45: Mary Bono (R)-inc vs. David Roth (D)
District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc vs. Jim Brandt (D)
District 47: Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc vs. Tan Nguyen (R)
District 48: John Campbell (R)-inc vs. Steve Young (D)
District 49: Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. Jeeni Criscenzo (D)
District 50: Brian Bilbray(R)-inc vs. Francine Busby(D) - possible competitive race
District 51: Bob Filner (D)-inc vs. Blake Miles (R)
District 52: Duncan Hunter (R)-inc vs. John Rinaldi (D)
District 53: Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. John Woodrum (R)
Election Timeline
March 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
20 GOP, 33 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - DEM control |
15 GOP, 25 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
32 GOP, 48 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Cruz Bustamante (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
Senior Senator: Dianne Feinstein (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
Junior Senator: Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Michael Thompson (D) - 4th term
House District 2: Wally Herger (R) - 10th term
House District 3: Daniel Lungren (R) - 6th term
House District 4: John Doolittle (R) - 8th term
House District 5: Doris Matsui (D) - 1st term
House District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D) - 7th term
House District 7: George Miller (D) - 16th term
House District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D) - 10th term
House District 9: Barbara Lee (D) - 4th term
House District 10: Ellen Tauscher (D) - 5th term
House District 11: Richard Pombo (R) - 7th term
House District 12: Tom Lantos (D) - 13th term
House District 13: Pete Stark (D) - 17th term
House District 14: Anna Eshoo (D) - 7th term
House District 15: Michael Honda (D) - 3th term
House District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D) - 6th term
House District 17: Sam Farr (D) - 7th term
House District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D) - 2nd term
House District 19: George Radanovich (R) - 6th term
House District 20: Jim Costa (D) - 1st term
House District 21: Devin Nunes (R) - 2nd term
House District 22: William Thomas (R) - 14th term (retiring)
House District 23: Lois Capps (D) - 4th term
House District 24: Elton Gallegly (R) - 11th term
House District 25: Buck McKeon (R) - 7th term
House District 26: David Dreier (R) - 13th term
House District 27: Brad Sherman (D) - 5th term
House District 28: Howard Berman (D) - 12th term
House District 29: Adam Schiff (D) - 3rd term
House District 30: Henry Waxman (D) - 16th term
House District 31: Xavier Becerra (D) - 7th term
House District 32: Hilda Solis (D) - 3rd term
House District 33: Diane Watson (D) - 3rd term
House District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 7th term
House District 35: Maxine Waters (D) - 8th term
House District 36: Jane Harman (D) - 3rd term
House District 37: Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) - 6th term
House District 38: Grace Napolitano (D) - 4th term
House District 39: Linda Sanchez (D) - 2nd term
House District 40: Edward Royce (R) - 6th term
House District 41: Jerry Lewis (R) - 13th term
House District 42: Gary Miller (R) - 4th term
House District 43: Joe Baca (D) - 4th term
House District 44: Kenneth Calvert (R) - 7th term
House District 45: Mary Bono (R) - 4th term
House District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 9th term
House District 47: Loretta Sanchez (D) - 5th term
House District 48: John Campbell (R) - 1st term
House District 49: Darrell Issa (R) - 3rd term
House District 50: Brian Bilbray (R) - 1st term (partial)
House District 51: Bob Filner (D) - 7th term
House District 52: Duncan Hunter (R) - 13th term
House District 53: Susan Davis (D) - 3rd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Colorado
Previous Stop: Arkansas
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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