Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

Illinois

Latest News and Updates

Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes

Gov: Mason-Dixon: Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 40% - 11/02/06

CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/31/06

CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Bean 50%, McSweeney 45% - 10/31/06

CD-6: Daily Herald: Roskam 46%, Duckworth 42% - 10/30/06

CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Duckworth 48%, Roskam 47% - 10/23/06

CD-8: Daily Herald: Bean 42%, McSweeney 39% - 10/30/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/30/06

Gov: Research 2000: Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 38% - 10/30/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 34% - 10/24/06

CD-6: Chicago Tribune: Roskam 43%, Duckworth 39% - 10/23/06

CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/23/06

CD-8: Chicago Tribune: Bean 50%, McSweeney 31% - 10/23/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Blagojevich -21 (down 14) - 10/23/06

CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06

CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Bean 48%, McSweeney 45% - 10/21/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 36% - 10/20/06

CD-8: Bennett Petts (D): Bean 49%, McSweeney 33% - 10/17/06

Gov: Tribune/WGN-TV: Blagojevich 43%, Topinka 29% - 10/16/06

Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06

CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Duckworth 47%, Roskam 47% - 10/13/06

CD-6: Greenberg Quinlan (D): Duckworth 51%, Roskam 46% - 10/13/06

CD-6: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06

Gov: Mason-Dixon: Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 37% - 09/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Blagojevich -7 (up 1) - 09/25/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 39% - 09/21/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Blagojevich 48%, Topinka 36% - 09/13/06

Gov: Tribune/WGN-TV: Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 33% - 09/12/06

CD-6: Constituent Dynamics: Duckworth 47%, Roskam 46% - 09/07/06

CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Bean 48%, McSweeney 45% - 09/07/06

Gov: Research 2000: Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 39% - 09/04/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Blagojevich -8 (down 1) - 08/27/06

CD-6: Congressional Quarterly: Leans GOP to No Clear Favorite - 08/14/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 08/10/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 37% - 08/10/06

CD-6: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 34% - 07/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Blagojevich -7 (up 1) - 07/23/06

Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

Conservative Ranking

Illinois is the 7th least conservative state, voting 12.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Illinois is trending DEMOCRAT.

GOP Trend Ranking

Illinois ranks 37th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

No race in 2006

Governor's Race

Incumbent: Democrat Rod Blagojevich is running for re-election to a second term in 2006. He faced no serious primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Judy Baar Topinka - Illinois State Treasurer

Bill Brady - Illinois State Senator

Ron Gidwtiz - Former Head Illinois State Board of Education

Andy Martin

James Oberweis - Businessman

Democrat Candidates

Rod Blagojevich - Incumbent

Edwin Eisendrath

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Rod Blagojevich +4.2

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Topinka	Blagojevich
SurveyUSA	11/01	37%	45%
Rasmussen	11/01	37%	44%
Chicago Tribune	10/31	29%	44%
Mason-Dixon	10/29	40%	44%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	8.5	80%	6.8
Incumbent approval	-21	15%	-3.2
State partisanship	10.3	5%	0.5

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Blagojevich +4.2	Weak DEM Hold
November 2, 2006	Blagojevich +3.6	Weak DEM Hold
October 30, 2006	Blagojevich +4.6	Weak DEM Hold
October 24, 2006	Blagojevich +5.8	Mod DEM Hold
October 23, 2006	Blagojevich +5.0	Mod DEM Hold
October 21, 2006	Blagojevich +7.1	Mod DEM Hold
October 16, 2006	Blagojevich +7.5	Mod DEM Hold
September 25, 2006	Blagojevich +7.1	Mod DEM Hold
September 21, 2006	Blagojevich +6.9	Mod DEM Hold
September 13, 2006	Blagojevich +7.8	Mod DEM Hold
September 12, 2006	Blagojevich +7.3	Mod DEM Hold
September 4, 2006	Blagojevich +5.7	Mod DEM Hold
August 27, 2006	Blagojevich +6.2	Mod DEM Hold
August 10, 2006	Blagojevich +6.4	Mod DEM Hold
July 26, 2006	Blagojevich +2.6	Weak DEM Hold
July 23, 2006	Blagojevich +1.3	Weak DEM Hold
July 12, 2006	Blagojevich +1.2	Weak DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Hold

Competitive House Races

District 6

OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Henry Hyde is retiring at the end of his 16th term. He is not seeking re-election in 2006.

GOP Candidates

Peter Roskam - Illinois State Senator

Democrat Candidates

Tammy Duckworth - Iraq War Veteran/Double Amputee

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Peter Roskam +1.0

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/13	Toss-up
Charlie Cook	07/19	Toss-up
Larry Sabato	11/06	Duckworth by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	08/14	Toss-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Roskam	Duckworth
Constituent Dynamics	10/26	47%	48%
Daily Herald	10/24	46%	42%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-0.5	45%	-0.2
Head-to-head polls	1.5	50%	0.8
District partisanship	9.5	5%	0.5

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Roskam +1.0	Weak GOP Hold
October 30, 2006	Roskam +1.2	Weak GOP Hold
October 23, 2006	Roskam +1.5	Weak GOP Hold
October 16, 2006	Roskam +0.7	Weak GOP Hold
October 13, 2006	Roskam +1.0	Weak GOP Hold
September 7, 2006	Roskam +0.6	Weak GOP Hold
August 14, 2006	Roskam +2.2	Weak GOP Hold
August 9, 2006	Roskam +3.0	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	possibly competitive

District 8

Incumbent: Democrat Melissa Bean seeks a second term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

David McSweeney - Businessman

Democrat Candidates

Melissa Bean - Incumbent

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Melissa Bean +3.0

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/13	Bean by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Charlie Cook	06/29	Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)
Larry Sabato	10/13	Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	07/11	Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	McSweeney	Bean
Constituent Dynamics	10/26	45%	50%
Daily Herald	10/24	39%	42%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	3.5	45%	1.6
Head-to-head polls	4.0	50%	2.0
District partisanship	-11	5%	-0.6

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Bean +3.0	Mod DEM Hold
October 31, 2006	Bean +3.0	Mod DEM Hold
October 23, 2006	Bean +6.5	Mod DEM Hold
October 21, 2006	Bean +4.3	Weak DEM Hold
October 17, 2006	Bean +4.8	Weak DEM Hold
October 13, 2006	Bean +3.3	Weak DEM Hold
September 7, 2006	Bean +1.6	Weak DEM Hold
July 12, 2006	Bean +0.9	Weak DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak GOP Gain

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Bobby Rush (D)-inc vs. Jason Tabour (R)

District 2: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)-inc vs. Robert Belin (R)

District 3: Daniel Lipinski (D)-inc vs. Ray Wardingley (R)

District 4: Luis Gutierrez (D)-inc vs. Ann Melichar (R)

District 5: Rahm Emanuel (D)-inc vs. Kevin White (R)

District 7: Danny Davis (D)-inc vs. Charles Hutchinson (R)

District 9: Jan Schakowsky (D)-inc vs. Michael Shannon (R)

District 10: Mark Steven Kirk (R)-inc vs. Daniel Seals (D)

District 11: Jerry Weller (R)-inc vs. John Pavich (D)

District 12: Jerry Costello (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 13: Judy Biggert (R)-inc vs. Joseph Shannon (D)

District 14: Dennis Hastert (R)-inc vs. John Laesch (D)

District 15: Tim Johnson (R)-inc vs. David Gill (D)

District 16: Donald Manzullo (R)-inc vs. Richard Auman (D)

District 17: OPEN: Philip Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R)

District 18: Ray Lahood (R)-inc vs. Steve Waterworth (D)

District 19: John Shimkus (R)-inc vs. Danny Stover (D)

Election Timeline

January 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

March 21, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	9 GOP, 10 DEM
State Government
Governor	DEM
Lt. Governor - tied to Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	27 GOP, 31 DEM, 1 IND
State House - DEM control	53 GOP, 65 DEM