Indiana
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-2: Research 2000: Donnelly 50%, Chocola 47% - 11/02/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Ellsworth 53%, Hostettler 43% - 10/31/06
CD-9: Constituent Dynamics: Hill 51%, Sodrel 43% - 10/31/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Donnelly 48%, Chocola 45% - 10/30/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
CD-8: Research 2000: Ellsworth 50%, Hostettler 43% - 10/26/06
CD-9: Research 2000: Hill 47%, Sodrel 45% - 10/26/06
CD-9: SurveyUSA: Hill 47%, Sodrel 43% - 10/24/06
CD-2: Research 2000: Donnelly 45%, Chocola 40% - 10/19/06
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/16/06
CD-8: Indiana State University: Ellsworth 55%, Hostettler 32% - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-2: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Donnelly 50%, Chocola 46% - 10/13/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-2: Greenberg Quinlan (D): Donnelly 52%, Chocola 36% - 10/12/06
CD-2: Mercury Public Affairs (R): Donnelly 45%, Chocola 44% - 10/12/06
CD-2: Pundit rating change - 10/12/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/12/06
CD-9: SurveyUSA: Hill 48%, Sodrel 46% - 10/10/06
CD-2: Research 2000: Donnelly 50%, Chocola 42% - 09/19/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Donnelly 52%, Chocola 40% - 09/14/06
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/14/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Ellsworth 51%, Hostettler 45% - 09/14/06
CD-9: Constituent Dynamics: Hill 53%, Sodrel 42% - 09/14/06
CD-9: Research 2000: Hill 46%, Sodrel 40% - 09/13/06
CD-2: Charlie Cook: Leans GOP to Toss-up - 08/19/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Lugar +26 (down 10) - 08/18/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 08/09/06
Tracking initiated - 7/12/06
Conservative Ranking
Indiana is the 12th most conservative state, voting
18.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Indiana is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Indiana ranks 19th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Richard Lugar seeks a 6th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Richard Lugar - Incumbent 
Democrat Candidates
Unopposed
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Richard Lugar +72.0
Polling Data - no polls will be tracked on this race.
Projection Data - Lugar is unopposed and is assured re-election by a wide margin.
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
District 2
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Chris Chocola is seeking a 3rd term 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Chris Chocola - Incumbent
Tony Zirkle
Democrat Candidates
Joseph Donnelly - 2004 Nominee
Steve Francis
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Joseph Donnelly +1.9 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Donnelly by 4 (Lean DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
10/13 |
Donnelly by 4 (Lean DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/12 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Chocola |
Donnelly |
| Research 2000 |
10/31 |
47% |
50% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
45% |
48% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-2.0 |
45% |
-0.9 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-3.0 |
50% |
-1.5 |
| District partisanship |
11 |
5% |
0.6 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Donnelly +1.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 2, 2006 |
Donnelly +1.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Donnelly +2.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 19, 2006 |
Donnelly +2.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Donnelly +3.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 12, 2006 |
Donnelly +3.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Donnelly +4.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 19, 2006 |
Donnelly +4.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 14, 2006 |
Donnelly +1.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 19, 2006 |
Donnelly +1.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 9, 2006 |
Donnelly +0.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
District 8
Incumbent: GOP incumbent John Hostettler is up for a 7th term 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
John Hostettler - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Brad Ellsworth - Vanderburgh County Sheriff
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Brad Ellsworth +5.7 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Ellsworth by 8 (DEM Favored) |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Ellsworth by 4 (Likely DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/12 |
Ellsworth by 4 (Leans DEM) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Hostettler |
Ellsworth |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
43% |
53% |
| Research 2000 |
10/20 |
43% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-5.0 |
45% |
-2.3 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-8.5 |
50% |
-4.3 |
| District partisanship |
16 |
5% |
0.8 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Ellsworth +5.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 31, 2006 |
Ellsworth +5.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Ellsworth +8.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 26, 2006 |
Ellsworth +8.1 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Ellsworth +7.1 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Ellsworth +2.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Ellsworth +2.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 12, 2006 |
Ellsworth +1.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 14, 2006 |
Ellsworth +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 11, 2006 |
Hostettler +1.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
District 9
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Mike Sodrel is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced only token
primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mike Sodrel - Incumbent
Sam Shultz
Democrat Candidates
Baron Hill - Former Indiana Representative to the U.S. House
Gretchen Clearwater
John Hockersmith
Lendall Terry
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Mike Sodrel +0.3
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Hill by 2 (Tilt DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Hill by 2 (Tilt DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
07/11 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Sodrel |
Hill |
| SurveyUSA |
11/02 |
46% |
44% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-1.0 |
70% |
-0.7 |
| Head-to-head polls |
2.0 |
25% |
0.5 |
| District partisanship |
9.5 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Sodrel +0.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Hill +2.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 26, 2006 |
Hill +1.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 24, 2006 |
Hill +0.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Hill +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Hill +0.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 10, 2006 |
Hill +3.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 14, 2006 |
Hill +4.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 13, 2006 |
Hill +1.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 11, 2006 |
Hill +0.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Peter Visclosky (D)-inc vs. Mark Leyva (R)
District 3: Mark Souder (R)-inc vs. Thomas Hayhurst (D)
District 4: Stephen Buyer (R)-inc vs. David Sanders (D)
District 5: Dan Burton (R)-inc vs. Katherine Carr (D)
District 6: Mike Pence (R)-inc vs. Barry Welsh (D)
District 7: Julia Carson (D)-inc vs. Eric Dickerson (R) - possible competitive race
Election Timeline
February 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 2, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
7 GOP, 2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
33 GOP, 17 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
52 GOP, 48 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Mitch Daniels, Jr. (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Lt. Governor: Becky Skillman (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Richard Lugar (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2006
Junior Senator: Evan Bayh (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Peter Visclosky (D) - 11th term
House District 2: Chris Chocola (R) - 2nd term
House District 3: Mark Souder (R) - 6th term
House District 4: Stephen Buyer (R) - 7th term
House District 5: Dan Burton (R) - 12th term
House District 6: Mike Pence (R) - 3rd term
House District 7: Julia Carson (D) - 5th term
House District 8: John Hostettler (R) - 6th term
House District 9: Mike Sodrel (R) - 1st term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Iowa
Previous Stop: Illinois
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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