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Kansas
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sabelius +29 (down 3) - 10/23/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/17/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sebelius 55%, Barnett 42% - 10/17/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sabelius +32 (up 1) - 09/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 09/15/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sebelius 58%, Barnett 38% - 09/15/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/04/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Sebelius 48%, Barnett 37% - 09/04/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sabelius +31 (up 6) - 08/27/06
Tracking initiated - 08/05/06
Conservative Ranking
Kansas is the 9th most conservative state, voting
22.9% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kansas is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Kansas ranks 20th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
Incumbent Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is up for re-election for the first time
in 2006. She faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jim Barnett - Kansas State Senator 
Robin Jennison - Former Kansas Speaker of the House
Ken Canfield
Rex Crowell - Former Kansas State Representative
Richard Rodewald
Dennis Hawver
Timothy Pickell
Democrat Candidates
Kathleen Sebelius - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Kathleen Sebelius +14.3
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Barnett |
Sebeluis |
| Rasmussen |
10/29 |
31% |
45% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
14.0 |
80% |
11.2 |
| Incumbent approval |
29 |
15% |
4.4 |
| State partisanship |
-25.4 |
5% |
-1.3 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Sebelius +14.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Sebelius +13.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 17, 2006 |
Sebelius +13.9 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Sebelius +15.9 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 15, 2006 |
Sebelius +15.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 4, 2006 |
Sebelius +12.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Sebelius +20.2 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 5, 2006 |
Sebelius +19.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Jerry Moran (R)-inc vs. John Doll (D)
District 2: Jim Ryun (R)-inc vs. Nancy Boyda (D) - possible competitive race
District 3: Dennis Moore (D)-inc vs. Chuck Ahner (R)
District 4: Todd Tiahrt (R)-inc vs. McGinn (D)
Election Timeline
June 12, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 1, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
3 GOP, 1 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
30 GOP, 10 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
83 GOP, 42 DEM |
| State Supreme Court - DEM control |
2 GOP, 5 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Kathleen Sebelius (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: John Moore (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Sam Brownback (R) - 3rd term, will retire in 2011
Junior Senator: Pat Roberts (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Jerry Moran (R) - 5th term
House District 2: Jim Ryun (R) - 5th term
House District 3: Dennis Moore (D) - 4th term
House District 4: Todd Tiahrt (R) - 6th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Kentucky
Previous Stop: Iowa
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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