Maryland
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Rasmussen: Cardin 50%, Steele 45% - 11/02/06
Gov: Rasmussen: O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 48% - 11/02/06
Sen: Baltimore Sun: Cardin 49%, Steele 43% - 11/02/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 11/01/06
Gov: Baltimore Sun: O'Malley 47%, Ehrlich 46% - 11/01/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/30/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Cardin 50%, Steele 45% - 10/30/06
Gov: Rasmussen: O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 47% - 10/30/06
Sen: Washington Post: Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 10/30/06
Gov: Washington Post: O'Malley 54%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/30/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Sarbanes +10 (down 4) - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Ehrlich even (down 5) - 10/23/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Steele 46%, Cardin 46% - 10/19/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/19/06
Gov: Rasmussen: O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 44% - 10/17/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 10/16/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Cardin 54%, Steele 39% - 10/07/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/07/06
Gov: USA Today/Gallup: O'Malley 53%, Ehrlich 41% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Sarbanes +14 (up 5) - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Cardin 47%, Steele 41% - 10/02/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/02/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: O'Malley 47%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/02/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/25/06
Sen: Potomac: Cardin 51%, Steele 40% - 09/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/25/06
Gov: Potomac: O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 44% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Ehrlich +5 (down 4) - 09/25/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/21/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Steele 48%, Cardin 47% - 09/21/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: O'Malley 51%, Ehrlich 44% - 09/21/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 09/20/06
Gov: Rasmussen: O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 42% - 09/20/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Maryland is the 5th least conservative state, voting
15.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maryland is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Maryland ranks 46th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
OPEN SEAT: DEM incumbent Paul Sarbanes is retiring at the end of this, his 5th term.
GOP Candidates
Michael Steele - Maryland Lt. Governor 
Ray Bly
Earl Gordon
Thomas Hampton
John Kimble
Edward Madej
Daniel Muffoletto
Richard Shawver
Corrogan Vaughn
Daniel "Wig Man" Vovak - President, Greenwich Public Relations
Democrat Candidates
Ben Cardin - Maryland Representative to the U.S. House
Kweisi Mfume - Former Maryland Representative to the U.S. House
David Dickerson
George English
James Hutchinson
Anthony Jaworski
Robert Kaufman - 2002 Congressional Candidate
Allan Lichtman - Professor
Thomas McCaskill
Josh Rales
Dennis Rasmussen
Bob Robinson
Theresa Scaldaferri
Mike Schaefer
Charles Smith
Blaine Taylor
Joseph Werner
Lih Young
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Ben Cardin +4.5
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Steele |
Cardin |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
46% |
49% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
44% |
47% |
| Rasmussen |
10/31 |
45% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
3.7 |
90% |
3.3 |
| Incumbent approval |
10 |
5% |
0.5 |
| State partisanship |
13.0 |
5% |
0.7 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Cardin +4.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| November 2, 2006 |
Cardin +6.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 30, 2006 |
Cardin +6.0 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Cardin +4.3 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Cardin +8.4 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Cardin +8.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Cardin +6.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Cardin +6.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 21, 2006 |
Cardin +4.4 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Cardin +6.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Cardin +5.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOPer Bob Ehrlich is seeking a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Robert Ehrlich - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Martin O'Malley - Baltimore Mayor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Martin O'Malley +1.7 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Ehrlich |
O'Malley |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
47% |
50% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
45% |
45% |
| Rasmussen |
10/31 |
48% |
49% |
| Baltimore Sun |
10/30 |
46% |
47% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-1.3 |
80% |
-1.0 |
| Incumbent approval |
0 |
15% |
0.0 |
| State partisanship |
-13.0 |
5% |
-0.7 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
O'Malley +1.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 2, 2006 |
O'Malley +4.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 1, 2006 |
O'Malley +4.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
O'Malley +5.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 23, 2006 |
O'Malley +6.1 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 19, 2006 |
O'Malley +5.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 17, 2006 |
O'Malley +5.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
O'Malley +5.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 2, 2006 |
O'Malley +4.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
O'Malley +5.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 21, 2006 |
O'Malley +4.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 20, 2006 |
O'Malley +3.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 3, 2006 |
O'Malley +2.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Mod DEM Gain |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Wayne Gilchrest (R)-inc vs. Jim Corwin (D)
District 2: Dutch Ruppersberger? (D)-inc vs. Jimmy Mathis (R)
District 3: OPEN: John Sarbanes (D)-inc vs. John White (R)
District 4: Albert Wynn (D)-inc vs. Michael Starkman (R)
District 5: Steny Hoyer (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 6: Roscoe Bartlett (R)-inc vs. Andrew Duck (D)
District 7: Elijah Cummings (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 8: Christopher van Hollen (D)-inc vs. Jeffrey Stein (R)
Election Timeline
July 3, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
2 GOP, 6 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
14 GOP, 33 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
43 GOP, 98 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Robert Ehrlich (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Michael Steele (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (running for Senate)
Senior Senator: Paul Sarbanes (D) - 5th term, retiring in 2007
Junior Senator: Barbara Mikulski (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Wayne Gilchrest (R) - 8th term
House District 2: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) - 2nd term
House District 3: Ben Cardin (D) - 10th term (running for Senate)
House District 4: Albert Wynn (D) - 7th term
House District 5: Steny Hoyer (D) - 13th term
House District 6: Roscoe Bartlett (R) - 7th term
House District 7: Elijah Cummings (D) - 6th term
House District 8: Christopher van Hollen (D) - 2nd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Massachusetts
Previous Stop: Maine
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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