Michigan
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Strategic Vision: Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 42% - 11/02/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Granholm 50%, DeVos 42% - 11/02/06
Sen: Detroit News: Stabenow 52%, Bouchard 38% - 11/01/06
Gov: Detroit News: Granholm 52%, DeVos 42% - 11/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Stabenow +5 (down 12) - 10/27/06
Sen: Detroit News: Stabenow 50%, Bouchard 38% - 10/27/06
Gov: Detroit News: Granholm 48%, DeVos 43% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 44% - 10/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Granholm 52%, DeVos 45% - 10/26/06
Sen: Research 2000: Stabenow 52%, Bouchard 41% - 10/26/06
Gov: Research 2000: Granholm 50%, DeVos 40% - 10/26/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Stabenow 55%, Bouchard 39% - 10/25/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Granholm 53%, DeVos 42% - 10/25/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 42% - 10/24/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Granholm 47%, DeVos 43% - 10/24/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Granholm -19 (down 5) - 10/23/06
Sen: Detroit Free Press: Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 35% - 10/16/06
Gov: Detroit Free Press: Granholm 49%, DeVos 41% - 10/16/06
Gov: EPIC/MRA: Granholm 51%, DeVos 42% - 10/16/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 42% - 10/10/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Granholm 50%, DeVos 45% - 10/10/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Stabenow 56%, Bouchard 39% - 10/09/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 10/09/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Granholm 49%, DeVos 42% - 10/09/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Stabenow +17 (up 8) - 10/07/06
Sen: Detroit News: Stabenow 47%, Bouchard 35% - 10/07/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 10/07/06
Gov: Detroit News: Granholm 46%, DeVos 40% - 10/07/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Granholm -14 (down 4) - 09/25/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 44% - 09/20/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Granholm 47%, DeVos 46% - 09/20/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Stabenow 54%, Bouchard 41% - 09/19/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: DeVos 47%, Granholm 47% - 09/19/06
Gov: EPIC/MRA: Granholm 50%, DeVos 42% - 09/15/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 43% - 09/07/06
Gov: Rasmussen: DeVos 46%, Granholm 44% - 09/07/06
Sen: Detroit Free Press: Stabenow 50%, Bouchard 37% - 09/05/06
Gov: Detroit Free Press: Granholm 46%, DeVos 44% - 09/05/06
Sen: Strategic Vision: Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 42% - 08/28/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Granholm 48%, DeVos 43% - 08/28/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Granholm -10 (unchanged) - 08/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 08/24/06
Sen: EPIC/MRA: Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 38% - 08/24/06
Gov: EPIC/MRA: Granholm 49%, DeVos 42% - 08/24/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 42% - 08/22/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: DeVos 47%, Granholm 47% - 08/22/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Stabenow +9 (down 2) - 08/18/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Gain to Weak GOP Gain - 08/16/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 44% - 08/16/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Granholm 47%, DeVos 46% - 08/16/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain - 08/09/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 41% - 08/09/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: DeVos 50%, Granholm 42% - 08/09/06
Gov: Rasmussen: DeVos 48%, Granholm 42% - 08/02/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: DeVos 48%, Granholm 44% - 07/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Granholm -10 (up 4) - 07/23/06
Gov: Detroit Free Press: DeVos 47%, Granholm 42% - 07/17/06
Tracking initiated - 07/12/06
Conservative Ranking
Michigan is the 16th least conservative state, voting
5.9% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Michigan is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Michigan ranks 33rd among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Freshman Democrat Debbie Stabenow is running for a second term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Keith Butler - Former Detroit City Councilman
Mike Bouchard - Former Michigan State Senate Majority Leader 
Democrat Candidates
Debbie Stabenow - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Debbie Stabenow +11.3
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Bouchard |
Stabenow |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
42% |
52% |
| Strategic Vision |
11/02 |
42% |
49% |
| Detroit News |
11/02 |
38% |
51% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
37% |
53% |
| Detroit Free Press |
11/02 |
34% |
53% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
13.0 |
80% |
10.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
5 |
15% |
0.8 |
| State partisanship |
3.4 |
5% |
0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Stabenow +11.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| November 2, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Stabenow +10.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Stabenow +11.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Stabenow +12.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 24, 2006 |
Stabenow +12.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Stabenow +12.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 10, 2006 |
Stabenow +12.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 9, 2006 |
Stabenow +12.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Stabenow +10.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 19, 2006 |
Stabenow +10.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 9, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 5, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.0 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 28, 2006 |
Stabenow +8.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 24, 2006 |
Stabenow +8.7 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 22, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.5 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 16, 2006 |
Stabenow +9.4 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| August 9, 2006 |
Stabenow +13.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Mod DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: Freshman Democrat Jennifer Granholm is seeking re-election in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Dick DeVos - Businessman
Democrat Candidates
Jennifer Granholm - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jennifer Granholm +5.0
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
DeVos |
Granholm |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
45% |
51% |
| Strategic Vision |
11/02 |
42% |
50% |
| Detroit News |
11/02 |
42% |
49% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
38% |
52% |
| Detroit Free Press |
11/02 |
41% |
54% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
9.6 |
80% |
7.7 |
| Incumbent approval |
-19 |
15% |
-2.9 |
| State partisanship |
3.4 |
5% |
0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Granholm +4.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| November 2, 2006 |
Granholm +4.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Granholm +4.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Granholm +3.2 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Granholm +3.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 24, 2006 |
Granholm +2.6 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Granholm +2.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Granholm +3.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 10, 2006 |
Granholm +1.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 9, 2006 |
Granholm +0.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
DeVos +0.1 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
Granholm +0.3 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Granholm +0.8 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 15, 2006 |
Granholm +1.6 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 7, 2006 |
Granholm +0.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 28, 2006 |
Granholm +1.3 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 24, 2006 |
Granholm +0.8 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| August 22, 2006 |
DeVos +2.1 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| August 16, 2006 |
DeVos +4.2 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| August 9, 2006 |
DeVos +5.9 |
Mod GOP Gain |
| August 2, 2006 |
DeVos +4.7 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| July 27, 2006 |
DeVos +3.1 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| July 23, 2006 |
DeVos +3.7 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| July 17, 2006 |
DeVos +4.3 |
Weak GOP Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Bart Stupak (D)-inc vs. Don Hooper (R)
District 2: Peter Hoekstra (R)-inc vs. Kimon Kotos (D)
District 3: Vernon Ehlers (R)-inc vs. James Rinck (D)
District 4: Dave Lee Camp (R)-inc vs. Mike Huckleberry (D)
District 5: Dale Kildee (D)-inc vs. Eric Klammer (R)
District 6: Fred Upton (R)-inc vs. Kim Clark (D)
District 7: Tim Walberg (R) vs. Sharon Renier (D)
District 8: Michael Rogers (R)-inc vs. Jim Marcinkowski (D)
District 9: Joseph Knollenberg (R)-inc vs. Nancy Skinner (D)
District 10: Candice Miller (R)-inc vs. Robert Denison (D)
District 11: Thad McCotter (R)-inc vs. Tony Trupiano (D)
District 12: Sandy Levin (D)-inc vs. Randell Shafer (R)
District 13: Carolyn Kilpatrick (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 14: John Conyers Jr. (D)-inc vs. Chad Miles (R)
District 15: John Dingell (D)-inc (unopposed)
Election Timeline
May 16, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
9 GOP, 6 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
22 GOP, 16 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
58 GOP, 50 DEM, 2 vacant |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Jennifer Granholm (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: John Cherry (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Carl Levin (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Debbie Stabenow (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Bart Stupak (D) - 7th term
House District 2: Peter Hoekstra (R) - 7th term
House District 3: Vernon Ehlers (R) - 7th term
House District 4: Dave Lee Camp (R) - 8th term
House District 5: Dale Kildee (D) - 15th term
House District 6: Fred Upton (R) - 10th term
House District 7: Joe Schwarz (R) - 1st term
House District 8: Michael Rogers (R) - 3rd term
House District 9: Joseph Knollenberg (R) - 7th term
House District 10: Candice Miller (R) - 2nd term
House District 11: Thad McCotter (R) - 2nd term
House District 12: Sandy Levin (D) - 12th term
House District 13: Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) - 5th term
House District 14: John Conyers Jr. (D) - 21st term
House District 15: John Dingell (D) - 26th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Minnesota
Previous Stop: Massachusetts
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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