Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

New Jersey

Latest News and Updates

Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes

Sen: Rasmussen: Menendez 48%, Kean 43% - 11/02/06

Sen: Fairleigh Dickinson: Menendez 48%, Kean 38% - 11/02/06

Sen: Rutgers/Eagleton: Menendez 46%, Kean 42% - 11/02/06

Sen: CNN: Menendez 51%, Kean 44% - 11/01/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Menendez 49%, Kean 44% - 10/31/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Menendez 45%, Kean 40% - 10/30/06

Sen: Research 2000: Menendez 48%, Kean 42% - 10/30/06

Sen: CBS/NY Times: Menendez 40%, Kean 39% - 10/27/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Menendez 45%, Kean 45% - 10/27/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Menendez -13 (down 13) - 10/27/06

Sen: Mason-Dixon: Menendez 45%, Kean 42% - 10/25/06

Sen: LA Times/Bloomberg: Menendez 45%, Kean 41% - 10/25/06

Sen: Monmouth/Gannett: Menendez 48%, Kean 39% - 10/23/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Menendez 42%, Kean 39% - 10/16/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Menendez 49%, Kean 45% - 10/12/06

Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Menendez 46%, Kean 43% - 10/07/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Menendez 0 (up 1) - 10/07/06

Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 10/05/06

Sen: Farleigh Dickinson: Menendez 46%, Kean 39% - 10/05/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Kean 46%, Menendez 41% - 10/05/06

Sen: Mason-Dixon: Menendez 44%, Kean 41% - 10/02/06

Sen: Rutgers/Eagleton: Menendez 45%, Kean 44% - 09/28/06

Sen: Monmouth/Gannett: Kean 44%, Menendez 39% - 09/25/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Kean 48%, Menendez 45% - 09/20/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Kean 44%, Menendez 40% - 09/14/06

Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 09/06/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Kean 44%, Menendez 39% - 09/06/06

Sen: Farleigh Dickinson: Kean 43%, Menendez 39% - 08/30/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Menendez -1 (down 7) - 08/18/06

Sen: Strategic Vision: Menendez 42%, Kean 40% - 08/17/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Menendez 44%, Kean 38% - 08/04/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Menendez +6 (up 7) - 07/26/06

Sen: Farleigh Dickinson: Menendez 43%, Kean 40% - 07/24/06

Sen: Quinnipiac: Kean 40%, Menendez 38% - 07/17/06

Conservative Ranking

New Jersey is the 13th least conservative state, voting 9.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Jersey's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking

New Jersey ranks 31st among the 50 states.

Senate Race

Incumbent: Democrat Robert Menendez was appointed to this seat by Governor Jon Corzine in 2005. He will seek election in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Tom Kean, Jr. - New Jersey State Senator

John Ginty - Financial Analyst

Democrat Candidates

Robert Menendez - Incumbent

James Kelly - Former Candidate

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Robert Menendez +4.2

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Kean	Menendez
USA Today/Gallup	11/04	40%	50%
Mason-Dixon	11/03	41%	48%
Monmouth/Gannett	11/03	42%	45%
Marist	11/03	42%	50%
Rasmussen	11/01	43%	48%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	6.6	80%	5.3
Incumbent approval	-13	15%	-2.0
State partisanship	6.7	5%	0.3
Other issues	Adjustment:		0.5

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Menendez +3.2	Weak DEM Hold
November 2, 2006	Menendez +3.2	Weak DEM Hold
November 1, 2006	Menendez +2.7	Weak DEM Hold
October 31, 2006	Menendez +1.8	Weak DEM Hold
October 30, 2006	Menendez +1.9	Weak DEM Hold
October 27, 2006	Menendez +1.6	Weak DEM Hold
October 25, 2006	Menendez +4.5	Weak DEM Hold
October 23, 2006	Menendez +4.9	Weak DEM Hold
October 12, 2006	Menendez +2.8	Weak DEM Hold
October 7, 2006	Menendez +2.3	Weak DEM Hold
October 5, 2006	Menendez +0.8	Weak DEM Hold
October 2, 2006	Kean +0.6	Weak GOP Gain
September 28, 2006	Kean +1.9	Weak GOP Gain
September 25, 2006	Kean +2.7	Weak GOP Gain
September 20, 2006	Kean +2.5	Weak GOP Gain
September 14, 2006	Kean +2.8	Weak GOP Gain
September 6, 2006	Kean +1.2	Weak GOP Gain
August 30, 2006	Menendez +1.8	Weak DEM Hold
August 18, 2006	Menendez +2.5	Weak DEM Hold
August 17, 2006	Menendez +3.5	Weak DEM Hold
July 31, 2006	Menendez +4.3	Weak DEM Hold
July 24, 2006	Menendez +3.3	Weak DEM Hold
July 17, 2006	Menendez +3.5	Weak DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Hold

Governor's Race

No race in 2006

Competitive House Races

No competitive races in 2006

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Robert Andrews (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 2: Frank LoBiondo (R)-inc vs. Viola Thomas-Hughes (D)

District 3: Jim Saxton (R)-inc vs. Richard Sexton (D)

District 4: Christopher Smith (R)-inc vs. Carol Gay (D)

District 5: Scott Garrett? (R)-inc vs. Paul Aronsohn (D)

District 6: Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Leigh-Ann Bellow (R)

District 7: Mike Ferguson (R)-inc vs. Linda Stender (D) - possible competitive race

District 8: Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Jose Sandoval (R)

District 9: Steven Rothman(D)-inc vs. Vince Micco (R)

District 10: Donald Payne (D)-inc (unopposed)

District 11: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)-inc vs. Tom Wyka (D)

District 12: Rush Holt (D)-inc vs. Joseph Sinagra (R)

District 13: Albio Sires (D) vs. John Guarini (R)

Election Timeline

April 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

June 6, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	6 GOP, 6 DEM, 1 vacant
State Government
Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	18 GOP, 22 DEM
State House - DEM control	31 GOP, 49 DEM