Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

New Mexico

Latest News and Updates

Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Bingaman +27 (up 2) - 10/27/06

CD-1: Albuquerque Journal: Madrid 45%, Wilson 42% - 10/24/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Richardson +42 (up 1) - 10/23/06

CD-1: SurveyUSA: Madrid 53%, Wilson 45% - 10/17/06

Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06

CD-1: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06

CD-1: Constituent Dynamics: Madrid 52%, Wilson 44% - 10/13/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Bingaman +25 (up 1) - 10/07/06

Sen: Albuquerque Journal: Bingaman 65%, McCulloch 19% - 10/04/06

Gov: Albuquerque Journal: Richardson 60%, Dendahl 28% - 10/04/06

CD-1: Albuquerque Journal: Wilson 44%, Madrid 44% - 10/02/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Richardson +41 (up 8) - 09/25/06

CD-1: SurveyUSA: Wilson 51%, Madrid 46% - 09/22/06

Sen: Rasmussen: Bingaman 56%, McCulloch 32% - 09/19/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Richardson 61%, Dendahl 26% - 09/19/06

Gov: Albuquerque Journal: Richardson 57%, Dendahl 28% - 09/12/06

CD-1: Constituent Dynamics: Wilson 48%, Madrid 45% - 09/07/06

CD-1: Albuquerque Journal: Wilson 45%, Madrid 42% - 09/05/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Richardson +33 (up 1) - 08/27/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Bingaman +24 (down 1) - 08/18/06

Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Bingaman +25 (down 3) - 07/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Richardson +32 (up 7) - 07/23/06

Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

Conservative Ranking

New Mexico is the 30th most conservative state, voting for President Bush but 1.7% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Mexico's partisan trend is STEADY.

GOP Trend Ranking

New Mexico ranks 27th among the 50 states.

Senate Race

Incumbent: Democrat Jeff Bingaman seeks a 5th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Tom Binavides - Former New Mexico State Senator

Steven Gavi - Retail

David Pfeffer - Santa Fe City Councilman

Allen McCulloch - Physician

Joe Carraro - New Mexico State Senator

Democrat Candidates

Jeff Bingaman - Incumbent

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Jeff Bingaman +32.0

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	McCulloch	Bingaman
Albuquerque Journal	10/04	19%	65%
Rasmussen	09/19	32%	56%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	35.0	80%	28.0
Incumbent approval	27	15%	4.1
State partisanship	-0.8	5%	-0.04

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Bingaman +32.0	Strong DEM Hold
October 27, 2006	Bingaman +32.0	Strong DEM Hold
October 7, 2006	Bingaman +31.7	Strong DEM Hold
October 4, 2006	Bingaman +31.6	Strong DEM Hold
September 19, 2006	Bingaman +22.8	Strong DEM Hold
August 18, 2006	Bingaman +24.4	Strong DEM Hold
July 31, 2006	Bingaman +24.6	Strong DEM Hold
July 14, 2006	Bingaman +25.0	Strong DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Strong DEM Hold

Governor's Race

Incumbent: Democrat Bill Richardson seeks a 2nd term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

John Dendahl - Former New Mexico GOP Chair

George Bailey - Minister

J.R. Damron - Radiologist

Democrat Candidates

Bill Richardson - Incumbent

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Bill Richardson +33.1

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Dendahl	Richardson
Albuquerque Journal	10/04	28%	60%
Rasmussen	09/19	26%	61%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	33.5	80%	26.8
Incumbent approval	42	15%	6.3
State partisanship	-0.8	5%	-0.04

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Richardson +33.1	Strong DEM Hold
October 23, 2006	Richardson +33.1	Strong DEM Hold
October 4, 2006	Richardson +32.9	Strong DEM Hold
September 25, 2006	Richardson +31.7	Strong DEM Hold
September 19, 2006	Richardson +30.5	Strong DEM Hold
September 12, 2006	Richardson +28.1	Strong DEM Hold
August 27, 2006	Richardson +24.1	Strong DEM Hold
July 23, 2006	Richardson +24.0	Strong DEM Hold
July 14, 2006	Richardson +22.9	Strong DEM Hold
Preliminary	-----	Strong DEM Hold

Competitive House Races

District 1

Incumbent: GOP incumbent Heather Wilson is up for a 5th term in 2006. She faced only token primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

Heather Wilson - Incumbent

Democrat Candidates

Patricia Madrid - New Mexico Attorney General

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Patricia Madrid +1.6 - DEM pick-up

Pundit Predictions

Pundit	Date	Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg	10/13	Toss-up
Charlie Cook	06/29	Toss-up
Larry Sabato	11/06	Madrid by 2 (Tilts DEM)
Congressional Quarterly	10/13	Toss-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Wilson	Madrid
SurveyUSA	11/05	48%	50%
Albuquerque Journal	11/02	45%	49%

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Pundit predictions	-0.5	45%	-0.2
Head-to-head polls	-3.0	50%	-1.5
District partisanship	2.5	5%	0.1

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
Final Projection	Madrid +1.6	Weak DEM Gain
October 24, 2006	Madrid +2.6	Weak DEM Gain
October 17, 2006	Madrid +3.9	Weak DEM Gain
October 16, 2006	Madrid +1.9	Weak DEM Gain
October 13, 2006	Madrid +1.4	Weak DEM Gain
October 2, 2006	Wilson +2.4	Weak GOP Hold
Septempber 22, 2006	Wilson +2.8	Weak GOP Hold
Septempber 7, 2006	Wilson +2.5	Weak GOP Hold
Septempber 5, 2006	Wilson +2.3	Weak GOP Hold
July 14, 2006	Wilson +0.6	Weak GOP Hold
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Gain

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 2: Steven Pearce (R)-inc vs. Albert Kissling (D)

District 3: Tom Udall (D)-inc vs. Ron Dolin (R)

Election Timeline

February 14, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

June 6, 2006 - Primary elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	1 GOP, 1 DEM
Representatives	2 GOP, 1 DEM
State Government
Governor	DEM
Lt. Governor - tied to Governor	DEM
State Senate - DEM control	18 GOP, 24 DEM
State House - DEM control	28 GOP, 42 DEM