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New York
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-25: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
CD-25: Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
CD-29: Constituent Dynamics: Massa 53%, Kuhl 42% - 10/31/06
CD-20: Constituent Dynamics: Gillibrand 53%, Sweeney 42% - 10/30/06
CD-20: Grove Insights (D): Sweeney 43%, Gillibrand 40% - 10/27/06
CD-24: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
CD-26: SurveyUSA: Reynolds 50%, Davis 45% - 10/27/06
CD-26: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Clinton +36 (up 7) - 10/27/06
Sen: Marist: Clinton 67%, Spencer 30% - 10/23/06
Gov: Marist: Spitzer 70%, Faso 22% - 10/23/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Pataki -4 (up 1) - 10/23/06
CD-29: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
CD-29: Constituent Dynamics: Massa 52%, Kuhl 40% - 10/21/06
CD-26: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/21/06
CD-26: SurveyUSA: Reynolds 49%, Davis 46% - 10/21/06
CD-24: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
CD-20: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
CD-20: Constituent Dynamics: Gillibrand 54%, Sweeney 41% - 10/21/06
Sen: Quinnipiac: Clinton 65%, Spencer 30% - 10/19/06
CD-20: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/19/06
CD-20: Siena College: Sweeney 53%, Gillibrand 39% - 10/17/06
Gov: Quinnipiac: Spitzer 71%, Faso 22% - 10/18/06
CD-20: Grove Insights (D): Sweeney 42%, Gillibrand 41% - 10/17/06
Sen: Siena College: Clinton 59%, Spencer 32% - 10/16/06
Gov: Siena College: Spitzer 68%, Faso 22% - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-20: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
CD-20: Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
CD-24: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
CD-24: Constituent Dynamics: Arcuri 53%, Meier 42% - 10/13/06
CD-26: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/13/06
CD-26: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-26: Constituent Dynamics: Davis 56%, Reynolds 40% - 10/13/06
CD-29: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-26: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/11/06
CD-26: Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
CD-26: RATING CHANGE: possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
CD-26: SurveyUSA: Davis 50%, Reynolds 45% - 10/07/06
CD-26: Tracking initiated - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Clinton +29 (up 3) - 10/07/06
Sen: Quinnipiac: Clinton 66%, Spencer 31% - 10/05/06
Gov: Quinnipiac: Spitzer 73%, Faso 21% - 10/04/06
Sen: New York Times/CBS: Clinton 60%, Spencer 30% - 09/29/06
Gov: New York Times/CBS: Spitzer 70%, Faso 20% - 09/29/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Pataki -5 (up 7) - 09/25/06
Sen: Siena College: Clinton 62%, Spencer 33% - 09/18/06
Gov: Siena College: Spitzer 72%, Faso 21% - 09/18/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Conservative Ranking
New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 20.8% less Republican in the
2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
New York ranks 32nd among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Democrat Hillary Clinton is up for re-election for the first time in 2006. She faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
John Spencer - Former Yonkers Mayor 
K.T. McFarland - Former Pentagon Official
Democrat Candidates
Hillary Clinton - Incumbent
Jonathan Tasini
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Hillary Clinton +32.7
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Spencer |
Clinton |
| Marist |
10/23 |
30% |
67% |
| Quinnipiac |
10/19 |
30% |
65% |
| Siena College |
10/16 |
32% |
59% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
33.0 |
80% |
26.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
36 |
15% |
5.4 |
| State partisanship |
18.3 |
5% |
0.9 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Clinton +32.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Clinton +32.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Clinton +31.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Clinton +29.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Clinton +30.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 5, 2006 |
Clinton +29.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 29, 2006 |
Clinton +28.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 18, 2006 |
Clinton +30.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Clinton +31.2 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent George Pataki has decided not to run for a fourth term in 2006.
GOP Candidates
John Faso - Former New York State Assemblyman
Democrat Candidates
Eliot Spitzer - New York Attorney General
Thomas Suozzi - Nassau County Executive
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Eliot Spitzer +41.6 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Faso |
Spitzer |
| Marist |
11/01 |
24% |
69% |
| Siena |
11/01 |
24% |
69% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-45.0 |
90% |
-40.5 |
| Incumbent approval |
-4 |
5% |
-0.2 |
| State partisanship |
-18.3 |
5% |
-0.9 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Spitzer +44.5 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| October 23, 2006 |
Spitzer +44.5 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| October 18, 2006 |
Spitzer +44.7 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Spitzer +45.6 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| October 4, 2006 |
Spitzer +45.9 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 29, 2006 |
Spitzer +45.3 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
Spitzer +44.7 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 18, 2006 |
Spitzer +45.0 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 13, 2006 |
Spitzer +43.8 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Gain |
Competitive House Races
District 20
Incumbent: Republican John Sweeney is seeking a 5th term. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
John Sweeney - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Kirsten Gillibrand
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Kirsten Gillibrand +0.1
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
11/06 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Gillibrand by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Sweeney |
Gillibrand |
| Siena |
11/02 |
43% |
46% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-0.5 |
70% |
-0.4 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-3.0 |
25% |
-0.8 |
| District partisanship |
21 |
5% |
1.1 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Gillibrand +0.1 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Sweeney +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Sweeney +1.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Sweeney +2.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Sweeney +7.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 17, 2006 |
Sweeney +4.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Sweeney +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Sweeney +3.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
possibly competitive |
District 24
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Sherwood Boehlert is retiring at the end of his 11th term.
He is not seeking re-election in 2006.
GOP Candidates
Raymond Meier - New York State Senator
Democrat Candidates
Michael Arcuri - District Attorney
Leon Koziol - Attorney
Les Roberts - Professor
Bruce Titler - Former Cortland Mayor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Michael Arcuri +4.2 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/21 |
Arcuri by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/27 |
Arcuri by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Larry Sabato |
10/27 |
Arcuri by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
08/09 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Meier |
Arcuri |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/10 |
42% |
53% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-2.5 |
70% |
-1.8 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-11.0 |
25% |
-2.8 |
| District partisanship |
6 |
5% |
0.3 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Arcuri +4.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Arcuri +4.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 21, 2006 |
Arcuri +2.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Arcuri +2.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Arcuri +1.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 11, 2006 |
Meier +2.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
------ |
Weak GOP Hold |
District 25
Incumbent: Republican James Walsh is seeking a 10th term. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
James Walsh - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Dan Maffei
Leon Koziol - Attorney
Les Roberts - Professor
Bruce Titler - Former Cortland Mayor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: James Walsh +2.5
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Walsh by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/01 |
Walsh by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Walsh by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
11/01 |
Walsh by 8 (Likely GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Walsh |
Maffei |
| Benenson Strategies (D) |
10/26 |
44% |
42% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
44% |
53% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
4.0 |
45% |
1.8 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-0.5 |
50% |
-0.3 |
| District partisanship |
19 |
5% |
1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Walsh +2.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Walsh +3.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
------ |
possibly competitive |
District 26
Incumbent: Republican Thomas Reynolds is seeking a 5th term. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Thomas Reynolds - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Jack Davis, Jr.
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Thomas Reynolds +1.3
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
10/06 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Reynolds by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Davis by 4 (Leans DEM) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Reynolds |
Davis |
| SurveyUSA |
11/03 |
50% |
46% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-0.5 |
70% |
-0.4 |
| Head-to-head polls |
4.0 |
25% |
1.0 |
| District partisanship |
12 |
5% |
0.6 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Reynolds +1.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Reynolds +1.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Davis +3.6 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Davis +5.6 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Davis +5.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 11, 2006 |
Davis +0.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Reynolds +1.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
not competitive |
District 29
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Randy Kuhl seeks a second term in 2006. He faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Randy Kuhl - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Eric Massa - Navy Veteran
David Nachbar - Corporate Executive
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Randy Kuhl +0.3
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Kuhl by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Larry Sabato |
10/13 |
Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/13 |
Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Kuhl |
Massa |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
42% |
53% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
3.5 |
70% |
2.5 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-11.0 |
25% |
-2.8 |
| District partisanship |
12 |
5% |
0.6 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Kuhl +0.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Kuhl +0.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Kuhl +0.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Kuhl +5.9 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Kuhl +5.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Kuhl +5.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Last Minute Competitive House Races
District 19: Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs. John Hall (D)
Election Projection: Sue Kelly +4.1
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Tim Bishop (D)-inc vs. Italo Zanzi (R)
District 2: Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. John Bugler (R)
District 3: Peter King (R)-inc vs. David Mejias (D) - possible competitive race
District 4: Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc vs. Martin Blessinger (R)
District 5: Gary Ackerman (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 6: Gregory Meeks (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 7: Joseph Crowley (D)-inc vs. Kevin Brawley (R)
District 8: Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc vs. Eleanor Friedman (R)
District 9: Anthony Weiner (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 10: Edolphus Towns (D)-inc vs. Jonathan Anderson (R)
District 11: OPEN: Yvette Clarke (D) vs. Stephen Finger (R)
District 12: Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc vs. Allan Romaguera (R)
District 13: Vito Fossella (R)-inc vs. Stephen Harrison (D)
District 14: Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc vs. Daniel Maio (R)
District 15: Charles Rangel (D)-inc vs. Edward Daniels (R)
District 16: Jose Serrano (D)-inc vs. Ali Mohamed (R)
District 17: Eliot Engel (D)-inc vs. Jim Faulkner (R)
District 18: Nita Lowey (D)-inc vs. Richard Hoffman (R)
District 21: Michael McNulty (D)-inc vs. Warren Redlich (R)
District 22: Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 23: John McHugh (R)-inc vs. Robert Johnson (D)
District 25: James Walsh (R)-inc vs. Dan Maffei (D)
District 27: Brian Higgins (D)-inc vs. Michael McHale (R)
District 28: Louise Slaughter (D)-inc vs. John Donnelly (R)
Election Timeline
July 13, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
9 GOP, 20 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
35 GOP, 27 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
45 GOP, 104 DEM, 1 vacant |
Current Office Holders
Governor: George Pataki (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Mary Donohue (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Charles Schumer (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Hillary Clinton (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Tim Bishop (D) - 2nd term
House District 2: Steve Israel (D) - 3rd term
House District 3: Peter King (R) - 7th term
House District 4: Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 5th term
House District 5: Gary Ackerman (D) - 12th term
House District 6: Gregory Meeks (D) - 5th term
House District 7: Joseph Crowley (D) - 4th term
House District 8: Jerrold Nadler (D) - 8th term
House District 9: Anthony Weiner (D) - 4th term
House District 10: Edolphus Towns (D) - 12th term
House District 11: Major Owens (D) - 12th term (retiring)
House District 12: Nydia Velazquez (D) - 7th term
House District 13: Vito Fossella (R) - 5th term
House District 14: Carolyn Maloney (D) - 7th term
House District 15: Charles Rangel (D) - 18th term
House District 16: Jose Serrano (D) - 9th term
House District 17: Eliot Engel (D) - 9th term
House District 18: Nita Lowey (D) - 9th term
House District 19: Sue Kelly (R) - 6th term
House District 20: John Sweeney (R) - 4th term
House District 21: Michael McNulty (D) - 9th term
House District 22: Maurice Hinchey (D) - 7th term
House District 23: John McHugh (R) - 7th term
House District 24: Sherwood Boehlert (R) - 11th term (retiring)
House District 25: James Walsh (R) - 9th term
House District 26: Thomas Reynolds (R) - 4th term
House District 27: Brian Higgins (D) - 1st term
House District 28: Louise Slaughter (D) - 10th term
House District 29: Randy Kuhl (R) - 1st term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: North Carolina
Previous Stop: New Mexico
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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