South Carolina
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sanford 58%, Moore 31% - 10/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/23/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sanford +12 (down 19) - 10/23/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/18/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sanford 56%, Moore 41% - 10/17/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sanford 50%, Moore 46% - 09/29/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sanford +31 (up 25) - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Sanford 54%, Moore 41% - 09/21/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Sanford 51%, Moore 38% - 09/12/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sanford +6 (down 12) - 08/27/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Sanford 47%, Moore 38% - 08/04/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Sanford +18 (up 5) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/14/06
Conservative Ranking
South Carolina is the 16th most conservative state, voting 14.6% more Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Carolina's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
South Carolina ranks 24th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
Incumbent: One-term Republican Mark Sanford, Jr. is up for re-election in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mark Sanford, Jr. - Incumbent 
Oscar Lovelace - Physician
Democrat Candidates
Tom Moore - South Carolina State Senator
Dennis Aughtry - Lawyer
Frank Willis - Mayor of Floence
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Mark Sanford, Jr. +16.3
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Sanford |
Moore |
| SurveyUSA |
11/04 |
57% |
40% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
17.0 |
80% |
13.6 |
| Incumbent approval |
12 |
15% |
1.8 |
| State partisanship |
17.1 |
5% |
0.9 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Sanford +16.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Sanford +19.5 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Sanford +14.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 18, 2006 |
Sanford +17.5 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 29, 2006 |
Sanford +12.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Sanford +15.9 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 12, 2006 |
Sanford +12.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Sanford +9.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 4, 2006 |
Sanford +10.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 23, 2006 |
Sanford +13.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 14, 2006 |
Sanford +12.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Henry Brown (R)-inc vs. Randy Maatta (D)
District 2: Joe Wilson (R)-inc vs. Michael Ray Ellisor (D)
District 3: Gresham Barrett (R)-inc vs. Lee Ballenger (D)
District 4: Bob Inglis (R)-inc vs. William Griffith (D)
District 5: John Spratt, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Ralph Norman (R)
District 6: Jim Clyburn (D)-inc vs. Gary McLeod (R)
Election Timeline
March 30, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
June 27, 2006 - Primary runoff elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
26 GOP, 20 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
74 GOP, 50 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Mark Sanford (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Andre Bauer (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Lindsey Graham (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Jim DeMint (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Henry Brown (R) - 3rd term
House District 2: Joe Wilson (R) - 3rd term
House District 3: Gresham Barrett (R) - 2nd term
House District 4: Bob Inglis (R) - 4th term
House District 5: John Spratt, Jr. (D) - 12th term
House District 6: Jim Clyburn (D) - 7th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: South Dakota
Previous Stop: Rhode Island
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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