Gov: Rasmussen: Perry 40%, Strayhorn 20%, Friedman 19%, Bell 13% - 07/24/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Perry -1 (down 7) - 07/23/06
Tracking initiated - 07/15/06
* - preliminary
Conservative Ranking
Texas is the 10th most conservative state, voting 20.4% more Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN.
NOTE: Texas' significant trend toward the GOP can be attributed somewhat to the presence of former Gov. George W. Bush on
the ballot in 2000 and 2004.
GOP Trend Ranking
Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison seeks a third term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Kay Bailey Hutchison - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Barbara Ann Radnofsky - Attorney
Gene Kelly - 2002 Senate Candidate
Darrel Hunter
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Kay Baily Hutchison +26.1
Polling Data
Polling Firm
Date
Hutchison
Radnofsky
Rasmussen
10/27
60%
34%
Projection Data
Index
Raw value
Weight
Factor
Head-to head polls
26.0
80%
20.8
Incumbent approval
28
15%
4.2
State partisanship
22.9
5%
1.1
Projection History
Date
Projection
Rating
Final Projection
Hutchison +26.1
Strong GOP Hold
October 7, 2006
Hutchison +26.1
Strong GOP Hold
September 13, 2006
Hutchison +26.3
Strong GOP Hold
August 9, 2006
Hutchison +29.5
Strong GOP Hold
July 31, 2006
Hutchison +27.1
Strong GOP Hold
July 24, 2006
Hutchison +27.5
Strong GOP Hold
July 15, 2006
Hutchison +21.1
Strong GOP Hold
Preliminary
-----
Strong GOP Hold
Governor's Race
Incumbent: Republican Rick Perry is up for election to a third term in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Rick Perry - Incumbent
Larry Kilgore
Star Locke
Rhett Smith
Democrat Candidates
Chris Bell - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House
Bob Gammage - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House
Rashad Jafer
Independent Candidates
Carole Strayhorn - Texas State Comptroller
Richard "Kinky" Friedman - Musician/Author
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Rick Perry +11/8
Polling Data
Polling Firm
Date
Perry
Bell
Strayhorn
Friedman
SurveyUSA
11/02
38%
22%
19%
16%
Projection Data
Index
Raw value
Weight
Factor
Head-to head polls
16.0
80%
12.8
Incumbent approval
-14
15%
-2.1
State partisanship
22.9
5%
1.1
Projection History
Date
Projection
Rating
Final Projection
Perry +11.8
Mod GOP Hold
October 25, 2006
Perry +7.0
Mod GOP Hold
October 23, 2006
Perry +10.5
Mod GOP Hold
October 5, 2006
Perry +11.6
Mod GOP Hold
September 25, 2006
Perry +9.3
Mod GOP Hold
September 20, 2006
Perry +9.0
Mod GOP Hold
September 13, 2006
Perry +8.6
Mod GOP Hold
August 27, 2006
Perry +12.2
Mod GOP Hold
August 10, 2006
Perry +13.4
Mod GOP Hold
July 24, 2006
Perry +14.6
Mod GOP Hold
July 23, 2006
Perry +12.2
Mod GOP Hold
July 15, 2006
Perry +13.2
Mod GOP Hold
Preliminary
-----
Strong GOP Hold
Competitive House Races
District 22
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Tom Delay resigned in June, 2006. He will not run for this seat even though
his name must remain on the ballot due to his primary victory. A write-in candidate will run for the GOP.
GOP Candidates
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs - Houston City Council Member (designated write-in candidate)
Democrat Candidates
Nick Lampson - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Nick Lampson +0.3 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
Pundit
Date
Prediction
Stuart Rothenberg
10/27
Toss-up
Charlie Cook
10/31
Toss-up
Larry Sabato
11/06
Lampson by 2 (Tilts Dem)
Congressional Quarterly
09/29
Lampson by 4 (Lean Dem)
Polling Data
Polling Firm
Date
Sekula-Gibbs
Lampson
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
Index
Raw value
Weight
Factor
Pundit predictions
-1.5
95%
-1.4
Head-to-head polls
up to 50%
District partisanship
21.5
5%
1.1
Projection History
Date
Projection
Rating
Final Projection
Lampson +0.3
Weak DEM Gain
November 1, 2006
Lampson +0.8
Weak DEM Gain
October 27, 2006
Lampson +1.8
Weak DEM Gain
October 16, 2006
Lampson +3.9
Weak DEM Gain
September 29, 2006
Lampson +4.9
Weak DEM Gain
Preliminary
-----
Weak DEM Gain
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Louie Gohmert (R)-inc vs. Roger Owen (D)
District 2: Ted Poe (R)-inc vs. Gary Binderim (D)
District 3: Sam Johnson (R)-inc vs. Dan Dodd (D)
District 4: Ralph Hall (R)-inc vs. Glenn Melancon (D)
District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R)-inc vs. Charlie Thompson (D)
District 6: Joe Barton (R)-inc vs. David Harris (D)
District 7: John Culberson (R)-inc vs. Jim Henley (D)
District 8: Kevin Brady (R)-inc vs. Jim Wright (D)
District 9: Al Green (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 10: Mike McCaul (R)-inc vs. Ted Ankrum (D)
District 11: Michael Conaway (R)-inc (unopposed)
District 12: Kay Granger (R)-inc vs. John Morris (D)
District 13: "Mac" Thornberry (R)-inc vs. Roger Waun (D)
District 14: Ron Paul (R)-inc vs. Shane Sklar (D)
District 15:* Ruben Hinojosa (D)-inc vs. Paul Haring (R)
District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 17: Chet Edwards (D)-inc vs. Van Taylor (R)
District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D)-inc vs. Ahmad Hassan (R)
District 19: Randy Neugebauer (R)-inc vs. Robert Ricketts (D)
District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 21:* Lamar Smith (R)-inc vs. John Courage (D)
District 23:* Henry Bonilla (R)-inc vs. Rick Bolanos (D) - possible competitive race
District 24: Kenny Marchant (R)-inc vs. Gary Page (D)
District 25:* Lloyd Doggett (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 26: Michael Burgess (R)-inc vs. Tim Barnwell (D)
District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D)-inc vs. Willie Vaden (R)
District 28:* Henry Cuellar (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 29: Gene Green (D)-inc vs. Eric Story (R)
District 30: Eddie Johnson (D)-inc vs. Wilson Aurbach (R)
District 31: John Carter (R)-inc vs. Mary Beth Harrell (D)
District 32: Pete Sessions (R)-inc vs. Will Pryor (D)
* - open primary on November 7
Election Timeline
January 2, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
March 7, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
National Delegation
Senators
2 GOP
Representatives
21 GOP, 11 DEM
State Government
Governor
GOP
Lt. Governor
GOP
State Senate - GOP control
19 GOP, 12 DEM
State House - GOP control
83 GOP, 63 DEM, 1 open
Current Office Holders
Governor: Rick Perry (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: David Dewhurst (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
Junior Senator: John Cornyn (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Louie Gohmert (R) - 1st term
House District 2: Ted Poe (R) - 1st term
House District 3: Sam Johnson (R) - 8th term
House District 4: Ralph Hall (R) - 13th term
House District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R) - 2nd term
House District 6: Joe Barton (R) - 11th term
House District 7: John Culberson (R) - 3rd term
House District 8: Kevin Brady (R) - 5th term
House District 9: Al Green (D) - 1st term
House District 10: Mike McCaul (R) - 1st term
House District 11: Michael Conaway (R) - 1st term
House District 12: Kay Granger (R) - 5th term
House District 13: "Mac" Thornberry (R) - 6th term
House District 14: Ron Paul (R) - 8th term
House District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D) - 5th term
House District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D) - 5th term
House District 17: Chet Edwards (D) - 8th term
House District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D) - 6th term
House District 19: Randy Neugebauer (R) - 2nd term
House District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D) - 4th term
House District 21: Lamar Smith (R) - 10th term
House District 22: Tom DeLay (R) - 11th term (resigning)
