Virginia
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 50%, Webb 48% - 11/02/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Kellam 50%, Drake 45% - 10/31/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
Sen: CNN: Webb 50%, Allen 46% - 10/31/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Webb 51%, Allen 46% - 10/30/06
CD-2: Mason-Dixon: Drake 46%, Kellam 44% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Allen +1 (down 7) - 10/27/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 50%, Webb 48% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Allen 49%, Webb 46% - 10/26/06
Sen: LA Times/Bloomberg: Webb 47%, Allen 44% - 10/25/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Allen 47%, Webb 43% - 10/24/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 47%, Webb 44% - 10/16/06
Sen: Washington Post: Allen 49%, Webb 47% - 10/16/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Drake 48%, Kellam 48% - 10/13/06
CD-2: Greenberg Quinlan (D): Kellam 52%, Drake 41% - 10/13/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Allen +8 (down 5) - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Allen 50%, Webb 44% - 10/02/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 49%, Webb 43% - 10/02/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Allen 43%, Webb 43% - 10/02/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Allen 49%, Webb 44% - 09/28/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 50%, Webb 43% - 09/15/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 09/13/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Allen 46%, Webb 42% - 09/12/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 09/12/06
CD-2: McLaughlin Associates: Drake 48%, Kellam 41% - 09/12/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06
CD-2: Constituent Dynamics: Kellam 51%, Drake 43% - 09/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 08/22/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Allen +13 (up 1) - 08/18/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 47%, Webb 42% - 08/18/06
CD-2: RATING CHANGE: not competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Allen 48%, Webb 32% - 07/31/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Allen 50%, Webb 39% - 07/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Allen +12 (down 5) - 07/26/06
Tracking initiated - 07/15/06
Conservative Ranking
Virginia is the 24th most conservative state, voting 5.7% more Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Virginia is trending is DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Virginia ranks 40th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Freshman Republican George Allen is seeking a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
George Allen - Incumbent 
Democrat Candidates
James Webb, Jr. - Former Navy Secretary
Harris Miller
Party nominee -
Election Projection: James Webb, Jr. +1.0 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Allen |
Webb |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
44% |
52% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
45% |
46% |
| Rasmussen |
11/02 |
49% |
49% |
| Roanoke College |
10/29 |
45% |
42% |
| CNN |
10/29 |
46% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-2.0 |
80% |
-1.6 |
| Incumbent approval |
1 |
15% |
0.2 |
| State partisanship |
8.2 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Webb +1.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| November 2, 2006 |
Webb +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 31, 2006 |
Webb +1.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Allen +0.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Allen +1.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Allen +3.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Allen +2.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 24, 2006 |
Allen +4.5 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Allen +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Allen +4.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Allen +5.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Allen +6.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 14, 2006 |
Allen +6.1 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 3, 2006 |
Allen +5.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 22, 2006 |
Allen +8.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Allen +10.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Allen +12.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 15, 2006 |
Allen +12.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
No race in 2006
Competitive House Races
District 2
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Thelma Drake is up for a second term 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Thelma Drake - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Philip Kellam - Virginia Commissioner of Revenue
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Thelma Drake +0.6
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
07/19 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Drake by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
08/09 |
Drake by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Drake |
Kellam |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
45% |
50% |
| Mason-Dixon |
10/24 |
46% |
44% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
1.5 |
45% |
0.7 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-1.5 |
50% |
-0.8 |
| District partisanship |
13 |
5% |
0.7 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Drake +0.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Drake +0.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Drake +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 16, 2006 |
Drake +0.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Drake +0.7 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Drake +0.05 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 12, 2006 |
Drake +1.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 7, 2006 |
Kellam +1.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 9, 2006 |
Drake +1.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
not competitive |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Jo Ann Davis (R)-inc vs. Shawn O'Donnell (D)
District 3: Bobby Scott (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 4: Randy Forbes (R)-inc (unopposed)
District 5: Virgil Goode, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Albert Weed, II (D)
District 6: Bob Goodlatte (R)-inc (unopposed)
District 7: Eric Cantor (R)-inc vs. James Nachman (D)
District 8: Jim Moran, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Thomas O'Donoghue (R)
District 9: Rick Boucher (D)-inc vs. Bill Carrico, Sr. (R)
District 10: Frank Wolf (R)-inc vs. Judy Feder (D)
District 11: Tom Davis, III (R)-inc vs. Andrew Hurst (D)
Election Timeline
April 19, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
8 GOP, 3 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
23 GOP, 17 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
57 GOP, 40 DEM, 3 IND |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Tim Kaine (D) - 1st term, barred from running in 2009
Lt. Governor: Bill Bolling (R) - 1st term, next election in 2009
Senior Senator: John Warner (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: George Allen (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Jo Ann Davis (R) - 3rd term
House District 2: Thelma Drake (R) - 1st term
House District 3: Bobby Scott (D) - 7th term
House District 4: Randy Forbes (R) - 3rd term
House District 5: Virgil Goode (R) - 5th term
House District 6: Bob Goodlatte (R) - 7th term
House District 7: Eric Cantor (R) - 3rd term
House District 8: Jim Moran, Jr. (D) - 8th term
House District 9: Rick Boucher (D) - 12th term
House District 10: Frank Wolf (R) - 13th term
House District 11: Tom Davis, III (R) - 6th term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Washington
Previous Stop: Vermont
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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