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Wisconsin
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Kagen 51%, Gard 45% - 10/31/06
CD-8: Press-Gazette: Gard 46%, Kagen 46% - 10/30/06
Gov: University of Wisconsin: Doyle 50%, Green 36% - 10/31/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Doyle 47%, Green 45% - 10/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kohl +30 (down 1) - 10/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/23/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Doyle -2 (down 5) - 10/23/06
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/21/06
Gov: Wisconsin Public Radio: Doyle 51%, Green 38% - 10/21/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-8: Constituent Dynamics: Kagen 48%, Gard 46% - 10/13/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Doyle 46%, Green 43% - 10/11/06
Gov: Research 2000: Doyle 48%, Green 42% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kohl +31 (up 12) - 10/07/06
Gov: Wisconsin Policy Research: Doyle 45%, Green 40% - 09/27/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Kohl 60%, Lorge 33% - 09/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/25/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Doyle 47%, Green 44% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Doyle +3 (up 3) - 09/25/06
Gov: Strategic Vision: Doyle 46%, Green 42% - 09/20/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Wisconsin is the 19th least conservative state, voting 2.9% less Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wisconsin is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Wisconsin ranks 35th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: Democrat Herb Kohl is running for a fourth term in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Robert Lorge - Attorney 
Democrat Candidates
Herb Kohl - Incumbent
Latesha Jude
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Herb Kohl +26.1
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Lorge |
Kohl |
| Rasmussen |
09/25 |
33% |
60% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
27.0 |
80% |
21.6 |
| Incumbent approval |
30 |
15% |
4.5 |
| State partisanship |
0.4 |
5% |
0.02 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Kohl +26.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Kohl +26.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Kohl +26.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Kohl +24.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Kohl +25.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: Democrat James Doyle is up for re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mark Green - Wisconsin Representative to the U.S. House
Democrat Candidates
James Doyle - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: James Doyle +5.6
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Green |
Doyle |
| Research 2000 |
11/01 |
44% |
50% |
| Univ. of Wisconsin |
10/26 |
36% |
50% |
| Strategic Vision |
10/26 |
45% |
47% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
7.3 |
80% |
5.9 |
| Incumbent approval |
-2 |
15% |
-0.3 |
| State partisanship |
0.4 |
5% |
0.02 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Doyle +5.6 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 31, 2006 |
Doyle +6.1 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Doyle +4.5 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Doyle +5.3 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Doyle +3.9 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Doyle +4.1 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Doyle +4.7 |
Weak DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Doyle +5.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Doyle +7.2 |
Mod DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 8
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Mark Green is running for Wisconsin governor in 2006.
GOP Candidates
John Gard - Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker
Terry McCormick - Wisconsin State Representative
Democrat Candidates
Steve Kagen - Allergy Clinic Entreprenuer
Nancy Nusbaum - Former Brown County Executive
Jamie Wall - Businessman
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Steve Kagen +0.7 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/21 |
Toss-up |
| Charlie Cook |
10/06 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Gard by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/21 |
Toss-up |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Gard |
Kagen |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
45% |
51% |
| Press Gazette |
10/25 |
46% |
46% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
0.5 |
45% |
0.2 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-3.0 |
50% |
-1.5 |
| District partisanship |
11 |
5% |
0.6 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Kagen +0.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 31, 2006 |
Kagen +1.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Gard +0.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 21, 2006 |
Gard +0.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 13, 2006 |
Gard +0.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Gard +2.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Gard +4.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Paul Ryan (R)-inc vs. Jeffrey Thomas (D)
District 2: Tammy Baldwin (D)-inc vs. David Magnum (R)
District 3: Ronald Kind (D)-inc vs. Paul Nelson (R)
District 4: Gwendolynne Moore (D)-inc vs. Perfecto Rivera (R)
District 5: Jim Sensenbrenner (R)-inc vs. Bryan Kennedy (D)
District 6: Tom Petri (R)-inc vs. John Curry (D)
District 7: David Obey (D)-inc vs. Nick Reid (R)
Election Timeline
July 11, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 4 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
19 GOP, 14 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
61 GOP, 38 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: James Doyle (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Barbara Lawton (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Herb Kohl (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
Junior Senator: Russ Feingold (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Paul Ryan (R) - 4th term
House District 2: Tammy Baldwin (D) - 4th term
House District 3: Ronald Kind (D) - 5th term
House District 4: Gwendolynne Moore (D) - 1st term
House District 5: Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R) - 14th term
House District 6: Tom Petri (R) - 7th term
House District 7: David Obey (D) - 19th term
House District 8: Mark Green (R) - 4th term (running for Governor)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Wyoming
Previous Stop: West Virginia
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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