Super Tuesday 2016 is here. I’ve posted a preview below as well as pages for each state holding a primary or caucus election on this momentous day on the primary election schedule. Come back after the polls close for frequently updated vote totals and delegate counts. I’ll be tracking the returns throughout the evening and keeping you informed on how the candidates are performing across the nation.
Super Tuesday Results
First polls close at 7pm EST
Super Tuesday Preview
Super Tuesday Delegates
|Democratic Delegates Won|
|Super delegates in parenthesis|
|Republican Delegates Won|
Super Tuesday States
|Click on state for more information|
|Alabama PrimaryPolls close at 7pm EST|
|Alaska CaucusCaucuses begin at 7pm EST|
|Arkansas PrimaryPolls close at 8:30pm EST|
|Colorado CaucusCaucuses begin at 9pm EST|
|Georgia PrimaryPolls close at 7pm EST|
|Massachusetts PrimaryPolls close at 8pm EST|
|Minnesota CaucusCaucuses begin at 8pm EST|
|Oklahoma PrimaryPolls close at 8pm EST|
|Tennessee PrimaryPolls close at 8pm EST|
|Texas PrimaryPolls close at 8pm or 9pm EST|
|Vermont PrimaryPolls close at 7pm EST|
|Virginia PrimaryPolls close at 7pm EST|
As February comes to a close, we can look back at a very entertaining month of nomination contests. So far, just over 300 delegates have been deposited into Democratic and Republican presidential hopefuls’ accounts (not counting 400 or so Democratic superdelegates who have voiced support for Hillary Clinton). Considering there are a total 4,763 Democratic delegates and 2,472 Republican delegates, the 2016 presidential primaries have barely begun. That changes tomorrow because Super Tuesday is at hand. In one day alone, twelve states and American Samoa will be holding primaries or caucuses. It is the biggest day on the primary election schedule. Over 1,600 delegates are at stake across both parties.Super Tuesday is sometimes referred to as the SEC primary because so many southern states will be voting. (SEC stands for “Southeastern Conference” whose member universities dot the South.) Seven states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, will highlight two important nomination developments, one in each party. Looking at the Republican race, we’ll see a large evangelical voting bloc dominating the southern states. Last summer, these voters promised to be Ted Cruz’s bedrock of support. That is no longer the case. After superb grassroots organization resulted in a win for Cruz in Iowa, he has seen Donald Trump win a plurality of evangelicals in South Carolina and Nevada. If that trend continues, and I’m afraid it will, Cruz will watch his chance at the GOP nomination fade as Christians flock to Trump. In turn, The Donald will get the chance to brag again about all the states he is winning.
On the Democratic side, the latent strength of Hillary Clinton’s nomination bid will fully surface as we move into the South. Saturday’s rout in South Carolina was just a prelude to the shellacking she’ll administer to Bernie Sanders tomorrow. Some of the seven states I mentioned will feature a plurality, if not a majority, of African-American participation. From El Paso to Richmond, Sanders will be able to do little to stem the tsunami of delegates Hillary will win. Sure, he’ll get 75 or 80 percent of the vote in Vermont, but that will be about the extent of his encouragement for the evening. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned Hillary’s enormous superdelegate advantage. She has already claimed support from 103 of the 152 superdelegates in Super Tuesday states. Sanders? Just seven – three of which come from Vermont where Hillary has four. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The battle for the Democratic nomination is over. Tomorrow, her victory lap continues. One name is conspicuously absent from my preview so far – Marco Rubio. He has climbed into second place in a couple recent national GOP nomination polls, and he is, in my view, the most viable threat to Trump’s nomination quest. However, Trump appears well on his way to solidifying his lead in the GOP race, both in the polls and in the GOP delegate count. Rubio’s path to the nomination requires a solid showing in tomorrow’s elections, but the possibility of him winning absolutely hinges on him carrying his home state of Florida. For now, however, that looks like a tough proposition with Trump up 20 points in the latest Florida primary poll.
Predicted Super Tuesday Delegates Gains
So how about some predictions? Who will win Super Tuesday? I have examined the polls and the delegates at stake and the methods used to award them. All this calculating has produced some predictions about the outcome tomorrow. Rather than listing state-by-state winners and percentages, I figured I’d aggregate all the delegates and provide an overall delegate total I predict each candidate will win.
|Democratic Delegate Count||Super Tuesday||Total|
|Hillary Clinton||627 (103 superdelegates)||739 (124)|
|Bernie Sanders||348 (7)||414 (8)|
|Republican Delegate Gains||Super Tuesday||Total|