Post-debate movement in the polls
- Can Hillary get the level of African-American support that she needs to win?
- How many Trump supporters are not being counted in the polls because they are either newly registered (and thus not included in pollsters’ “likely voter” models) or unwilling to admit their support when pollsters call?
- How big will the “NeverTrump” voting bloc be?
The answer to these questions will determine in large part who wins in November.
New Mexico Presidential election – Could this crazy result be in the cards? Nate Silver opines that Libertarian Gary Johnson, a well-liked, former governor of New Mexico, could carry his home state. The chance is very remote, according to Silver, but were it to happen, the winner of the presidential contest could be decided by the House of Representatives. (In the case where no candidate gets the majority in the Electoral College, the House votes to determine the next president.)The Wisconsin Senate Election looks like a sure Democratic takeover. Both campaigns are scaling back political advertising as Democrat Russ Feingold leads Republican incumbent Ron Johnson by double-digits in the polls. By all accounts, the Missouri Senate election is becoming more competitive. Republican incumbent Roy Blunt is now “in the fight of his life” against Democratic challenger Jason Kander. Critical Nevada Senate election represents opportunity for first Latina senator. But Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto must overcome a smallish deficit in polls against Republican Joe Heck to accomplish the first-time feat. Finally, here are five storylines to watch for in tonight’s vice-presidential debate
- What Happens When Both Candidates Prepare
- Defending the Top of the Ticket
- Kaine Hoping for Home State Advantage
- Playing Off the Polls
- Comparisons to the Past VP Debates