Each week during the 2016 election season, I am publishing a video update discussing how the elections are progressing. The second installment is here. After you view the video, please subscribe to EP’s YouTube channel so you won’t miss any future videos. Also, feel free to like the video and share it and to add comments on the YouTube page. (I’ve included the transcript below, but you’ll want to watch the video to see a funny moment near the end)
Welcome back folks!This is Election Projection’s second 2016 election update video, and I’m very excited about having had this program started. I got some good feedback from last week’s video, and one of the things that was sent in by a reader is the idea to incorporate some graphics and graphs and things like that into the video. So keep a look out for something along those lines coming up here in a little bit. Alright, so let’s go back and look at what we’ve seen this last week in the primary election season. The Republicans in South Carolina held their primary last Saturday, and Democrats in Nevada held their caucuses.
Ok, so now what I want to do is talk about what’s coming up on Tuesday. I know we have the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday, but a lot of eyes are focused on Tuesday because it’s Super Tuesday, March 1. On the Republican side, there will be over one-quarter of all delegates up for grabs, and on the Democratic side, we’ll have about one-fifth of all delegates up for grabs. Now, interestingly, the way that the Democrats and the Republicans allocate their delegates in completely different and they use some, let’s say, complicated means of determining how they’re going to allocate their delegates. I want to take an example on the Republican side of Alabama where they have about 50, I think, 50 delegates at stake. The way they allocate is they take a portion of that and they award it to the statewide winner, and then, like South Carolina, they take other parts of that and award them to the winner in each congressional district. But instead of just saying you win you get them, in Alabama there are some weird rules where if you get over 50%, you get them all, but if you don’t get over 50% and somebody else gets over 20%, you split them. So it’s really complicated in terms of how a lot of these states will get into allocating their delegates. And the Democratic side is even sometimes more complicated because they have different ways of even determining how many delegates are at stake. One of the things they do is the more Democratic the state votes, the more delegates they are awarded. You can see that in Tennessee and Massachusetts. Tennessee is a red state; Massachusetts is a very blue state. They’re both about the same size, but Massachusetts has a lot more delegates in its cadre for Democratic candidates. Ok, now let’s just for a minute talk about how this race is shaping up. I’ve already mentioned that Trump is far and away the front-runner going into Super Tuesday for the Republicans. On the Democratic side, actually, Bernie is actually kind of closing the gap with Hillary. You know, early in this race she was just walking through the park. She was way ahead. But then Bernie came up and started catching her. And I mean you can tell that Hillary was worried there for a while, and of course, Bernie, he’s just loving it. So, the latest national polls show Hillary Clinton with just a five-point lead. But as I said before, I really do believe that because of the nature of the upcoming primaries and the minority strength that she has among African-Americans, she is the hands down favorite to win the nomination. Ok, so next week, we’ll be looking back at Super Tuesday, and I hope you’ll join us again next week for that. Talk to you later.