Hillary’s health in focus
Hillary Clinton is back on the campaign trail after a weekend bout with pneumonia, but the episode left many Americans unsure about the state of her health, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds…. just 39 percent of Americans currently believe that Clinton is in good enough physical condition to effectively serve as president for the next four years, according to the poll. A nearly equal 38 percent say she isn’t in good enough condition, and 23 percent say they are unsure.That marks a significant shift from just over a week ago, when an Economist/YouGov survey posing the same question found that 52 percent of Americans believed Clinton was in good enough shape, 33 percent didn’t think she was and 16 percent didn’t know
Silver on Trump’s chances
In light of the heightened concern over Clinton’s health and the tightening projections here at EP, it’s not a big surprise that Nate Silver, the uber-guru of election predicting, recently gave Trump his best chance yet at winning the White House.
Statistician and data expert Nate Silver on Tuesday gave Donald Trump a 44.5 percent chance of winning the general election — the GOP presidential nominee’s highest odds to date.Clinton held a 55.5 percent chance of victory, according to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight “Polls-plus” forecast, which shows what “polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8.”
Beginning in late August, we’ve seen Clinton’s electoral fortunes sour. She has dropped from a 357-181 lead in the Electoral College to just 273-265. Trump needs just one more state with at least 6 electoral votes to fall his way for him to assume the upper hand in the projections. And with several states teetering just a few points in Clinton’s direction (Colorado-9EVs, Michigan-16, Virginia-13 and Wisconsin-10), we could see a change in the projected winner in the near future – especially if current trends hold.
Maine CD-2 becomes an issue
Polls in Maine’s upstate 2nd district have been showing Donald Trump with a sizable lead for some time now. Because Maine allocates one electoral vote to the winner of each of its two districts, a Trump victory in CD-2 would alter the overall electoral vote count, even if Clinton carries the state. As a result of the competitiveness in the district, I’ve decided to create an election page for Maine CD-2. Look for it to come online tomorrow or Friday.
Democrats surmise that the state’s left lean and Trump’s presence on the ticket will eventually prove too much to overcome for Heck, whose early edge they attribute mostly to name recognition.
Even though it isn’t a very big state, Nevada could prove decisive in both the presidential and senate elections. If Donald Trump can maintain his current lead, the Silver State’s 6 electoral votes could put him over the top. And with so many vulnerable Republican Senate seats on the line, it is a strong possibility that they will need to earn a takeover here to keep control of the Senate.