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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Alabama

Latest News and Updates


  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Riley 54%, Baxley 39% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Riley +12 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Riley 56%, Baxley 37% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  University of South Alabama:  Riley 57%, Baxley 32% - 10/10/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Riley 54%, Baxley 38% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Riley +15 (down 12) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  The Birmingham News:  Riley 55%, Baxley 34% - 09/12/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Riley +27 (up 4) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Riley 55%, Baxley 35% - 08/08/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Riley 52%, Baxley 38% - 07/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Riley +23 (down 7) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Alabama is the 7th most conservative state, voting 23.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alabama is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Alabama ranks 8th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Bob Riley is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bob Riley - Incumbent  
  • Roy Moore - Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice

    Democrat Candidates

  • Don Siegelman - Former Governor of Alabama
  • Lucy Baxley - Lt. Governor of Alabama  
  • Harry Lyon - Attorney
  • Joe Copeland - Environmental Activist
  • Nathan Mathis - Former Alabama State Representative
  • James Potts
  • Katherine Mack

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bob Riley +15.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Riley Baxley
        SurveyUSA 11/02 54% 39%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 15.0 80% 12.0
        Incumbent approval 12 15% 1.8
        State partisanship 25.7 5% 1.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 2, 2006 Riley +15.1 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Riley +21.5 Strong GOP Hold
        October 19, 2006 Riley +21.9 Strong GOP Hold
        October 10, 2006 Riley +20.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Riley +18.3 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Riley +20.3 Strong GOP Hold
        September 12, 2006 Riley +22.1 Strong GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Riley +21.9 Strong GOP Hold
        August 8, 2006 Riley +21.3 Strong GOP Hold
        July 27, 2006 Riley +19.7 Strong GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Riley +18.9 Strong GOP Hold
        July 10, 2006 Riley +19.9 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jo Bonner (R)-inc vs. Vivian Beckerle (D)
  • District 2:  Terry Everett (R)-inc vs. Charles James (D)
  • District 3:  Mike Rogers (R)-inc vs. Greg Pierce (D)
  • District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R)-inc vs. Barbara Bobo (D)
  • District 5:  Robert "Bud" Cramer (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  Artur Davis (D)-inc  (unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • April 7, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • June 27, 2006 - Primary runoff
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 5 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 10 GOP, 25 DEM
        State House - DEM control 42 GOP, 63 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Bob Riley (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Lucy Baxley (D) - 1st term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Shelby (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Sessions (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Jo Bonner (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Terry Everett(R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Mike Rogers (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R) - 5th term
  • House District 5:  Robert "Bud" Cramer (D) - 8th term
  • House District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  Arthur Davis (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Alaska

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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