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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Alaska

Latest News and Updates


  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Palin 45%, Knowles 44% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Murkowski -63 (up 5) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Palin 47%, Knowles 40% - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Murkowski -68 (down 11) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Palin 52%, Knowles 38% - 09/08/06
  • Gov:  Dittman Research:  Palin 46%, Knowles 29%, Halcro 3% - 09/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Murkowski -57 (down 2) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Mod GOP Hold - 08/24/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 08/24/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Alaska is the 8th most conservative state, voting 23.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alaska's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Alaska ranks 23rd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Frank Murkowski was up for a second term in 2006 after 22 years in the Senate.  He lost in the primary.

    GOP Candidates

  • Frank Murkowski - Incumbent
  • Sarah Palin - Chair, Alaska Oil and Gas Commission  
  • John Binkley - Former Alaska State Senator
  • Gerald Heikes
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Brad Snowden

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tony Knowles - Former Governor of Alaska  
  • Eric Croft - Alaska State Representative
  • Bruce Lemke

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Sarah Palin +0.03

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Palin Knowles
        Rasmussen 10/30 45% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 1.0 90% 0.9
        Incumbent approval -63 5% -3.2
        State partisanship 25.6 5% 1.3
        Other issues Adjustment: 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 30, 2006 Palin +0.03 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Palin +5.4 Mod GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Palin +5.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Palin +12.8 Mod GOP Hold
        September 8, 2006 Palin +13.4 Mod GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Palin +12.9 Mod GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Palin +11.1 Mod GOP Hold
        August 24, 2006 Palin +11.2 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Mod DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Don Young (R)-inc vs. Diane Benson (D)

    Election Timeline


  • June 1, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 22, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 12 GOP, 8 DEM
        State House - GOP control 26 GOP, 14 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Frank Murkowski (R) - 1st term, lost in 2006 primary
  • Lt. Governor:  Loren Leman (R) - 1st term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Theodore Stevens (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Lisa Murkowski (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Don Young (R) - 17th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Arizona
    Previous Stop:  Alabama

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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