Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Arizona

Latest News and Updates


  • CD-5:  SurveyUSA:  Mitchell 48%, Hayworth 46% - 11/02/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
  • CD-5:  Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kyl 0 (up 3) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Arizona State University:  Kyl 47%, Pederson 41% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Arizona State University:  Napolitano 67%, Munsil 24% - 10/25/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/24/06
  • CD-5:  Bennett, Petts (D):  Hayworth 47%, Mitchell 46% - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Napolitano +19 (down 6) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kyl 51%, Pederson 42% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Napolitano 58%, Munsil 37% - 10/19/06
  • Sen:  Northern Arizona University:  Kyl 49%, Pederson 33% - 10/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Kyl 48%, Pederson 43% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Napolitano 56%, Munsil 37% - 10/18/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/17/06
  • CD-5:  SurveyUSA:  Hayworth 48%, Mitchell 45% - 10/17/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Behavior Research Center:  Napolitano 58%, Munsil 24% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kyl -3 (down 20) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Behavior Research Center:  Kyl 45%, Pederson 36% - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  KAET/Arizona State:  Kyl 49%, Pederson 38% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  KAET/Arizona State:  Napolitano 64%, Munsil 28% - 09/28/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kyl 50%, Pederson 39% - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Napolitano 56%, Munsil 38% - 09/26/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/25/06
  • CD-8:  Arizona Daily Star:  Giffords 48%, Graf 36% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Napolitano +25 (up 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Kyl 48%, Pederson 43% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Napolitano 56%, Munsil 40% - 09/20/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/19/06
  • CD-5:  SurveyUSA:  Hayworth 52%, Mitchell 40% - 09/19/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kyl 52%, Pederson 34% - 08/31/06
  • Sen:  KAET/Arizona State:  Kyl 46%, Pederson 36% - 08/30/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kyl +17 (up 10) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kyl 53%, Pederson 34% - 08/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kyl +7 (up 5) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Kyl 52%, Pederson 40% - 07/18/06
  • Sen:  Tracking Initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Arizona is the 22nd most conservative state, voting 8.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Arizona ranks 22nd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jon Kyl is up for a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jon Kyl - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jim Pederson - Arizona Democratic Party Chair  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jon Kyl +7.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Kyl Pederson
        ASU 10/25 47% 41%
        Rasmussen 10/19 51% 42%
        N. Arizona Univ. 10/18 49% 33%
        SurveyUSA 10/18 48% 43%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 9.0 80% 7.2
        Incumbent approval 0 15% 0.0
        State partisanship 10.5 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 27, 2006 Kyl +7.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Kyl +7.3 Mod GOP Hold
        October 19, 2006 Kyl +7.9 Mod GOP Hold
        October 18, 2006 Kyl +8.3 Mod GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Kyl +6.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 5, 2006 Kyl +9.7 Mod GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Kyl +10.3 Mod GOP Hold
        September 26, 2006 Kyl +10.0 Mod GOP Hold
        September 20, 2006 Kyl +11.9 Mod GOP Hold
        August 31, 2006 Kyl +14.3 Mod GOP Hold
        August 30, 2006 Kyl +14.7 Mod GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Kyl +13.5 Mod GOP Hold
        August 2, 2006 Kyl +12.0 Mod GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Kyl +11.6 Mod GOP Hold
        July 18, 2006 Kyl +10.8 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary   Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Janet Napolitano is up for a second term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Don Goldwater
  • Mike Harris
  • Len Munsil  
  • Gary Tupper

    Democrat Candidates

  • Janet Napolitano - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Janet Napolitano +24.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Munsil Napolitano
        ASU 10/25 24% 67%
        Rasmussen 10/19 37% 58%
        SurveyUSA 10/18 37% 56%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 27.7 80% 22.1
        Incumbent approval 19 15% 2.9
        State partisanship -10.5 5% -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 25, 2006 Napolitano +24.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Napolitano +24.3 Strong DEM Hold
        October 19, 2006 Napolitano +25.2 Strong DEM Hold
        October 18, 2006 Napolitano +24.6 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Napolitano +24.0 Strong DEM Hold
        September 28, 2006 Napolitano +21.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 26, 2006 Napolitano +16.8 Strong DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Napolitano +16.6 Strong DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Napolitano +17.8 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 5


    Incumbent:  Republican J.D. Hayworth seeks a 7th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • J.D. Hayworth - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Harry Mitchell - Arizona State Senator  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  J.D. Hayworth +3.4

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP)
        Charlie Cook 10/31 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 06/29 Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 07/09 Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hayworth Mitchell
        SurveyUSA 11/02 46% 48%
        Bennett, Petts (D) 10/24 47% 46%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 3.0 45% 1.4
        Head-to-head polls** 2.5 50% 1.3
        District partisanship 15 5% 0.8
        ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 2, 2006 Hayworth +3.4 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Hayworth +4.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 24, 2006 Hayworth +5.1 Mod GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Hayworth +4.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 14, 2006 Hayworth +6.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 19, 2006 Hayworth +6.7 Mod GOP Hold
        July 18, 2006 Hayworth +4.8 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold


    District 8


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Kolbe is retiring at the end of his 13th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Graf - Former Arizona State Representative  
  • Frank Antenori - Iraqi and Afghanistan War Veteran, Retired Special Forces
  • Mike Hellon - Former Arizona GOP Party Chairman
  • Steve Huffman - Arizona State Senator
  • Mark Jenkins - Auto Shop Manager

    Democrat Candidates

  • Gabrielle Giffords - Former Arizona State Senator  
  • Jeff Latas - Desert Storm Veteran
  • Dwight Leister - Former Business Executive
  • Alex Rodriguez - Tucson School Board Member

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Gabrielle Giffords +6.9 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Giffords by 8 (DEM Favored)
        Charlie Cook 10/13 Giffords by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Giffords by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/11 Giffords by 8 (Likely DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Graf Giffords
        AZ Dialy Star 09/25 36% 48%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -5.0 70% -3.5
        Head-to-head polls -12.0 25% -3.0
        District partisanship 7 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 16, 2006 Giffords +6.9 Mod DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Giffords +7.2 Mod DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Giffords +6.5 Mod DEM Gain
        September 13, 2006 Giffords +4.3 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs. Ellen Simon (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 2:  Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. John Thrasher (D)
  • District 3:  John Shadegg (R)-inc vs. Don Chilton? (D)
  • District 4:  Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. Don Karg (R)
  • District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R)-inc vs. Glenn Fuller (D)
  • District 7:  Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. Ron Drake (R)

    Election Timeline


  • June 14, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 6 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 18 GOP, 12 DEM
        State House - GOP control 39 GOP, 21 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Janet Napolitano (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Jan Brewer (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  John McCain (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Kyl (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Rick Renzi (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Trent Franks (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  John Shadegg (R) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  Ed Pastor (D) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  J.D. Hayworth (R) - 6th term
  • House District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Raul Grijalva (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 8:  Jim Kolbe (R) - 11th term, not seeking re-election in 2006

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Arkansas
    Previous Stop:  Alaska

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming