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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Arkansas

Latest News and Updates


  • Gov:  Opinion Research:  Beebe 56%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  University of Arkansas:  Beebe 51%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Beebe 58%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  Constituent Dynamics:  Beebe 52%, Hutchinson 39% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Huckabee +10 (down 5) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Opinion Research:  Beebe 53%, Hutchinson 35% - 10/03/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Beebe 55%, Hutchinson 40% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Huckabee +15 (down 3) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Beebe 49%, Hutchinson 38% - 09/12/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Beebe 55%, Hutchinson 38% - 08/31/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Huckabee +18 (up 8) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 08/21/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Beebe 45%, Hutchinson 41% - 08/21/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Beebe 47%, Hutchinson 40% - 07/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Huckabee +10 (down 7) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Arkansas is the 23rd most conservative state, voting 7.3% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arkansas is trending REPUBLICAN.
    NOTE:  Arkansas' GOP trend can be largely attributed to the presence of former Gov. Bill Clinton on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Arkansas ranks 3rd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Mike Huckabee is finishing up his 2nd full term.  He is term-limited and cannot seek a third term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Asa Hutchinson - Former Arkansas Representative to the U.S. House  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Mike Beebe - Arkansas Attorney General  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Mike Beebe +13.4 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hutchinson Beebe
        Opinion Research 10/30 38% 56%
        Univ. of Arkansas 10/27 38% 51%
        SurveyUSA 10/26 38% 58%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 39% 52%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -16.0 90% -14.4
        Incumbent approval 10 5% 0.5
        State partisanship 9.7 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 30, 2006 Beebe +13.4 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Beebe +12.8 Mod DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Beebe +13.9 Mod DEM Gain
        October 3, 2006 Beebe +12.0 Mod DEM Gain
        September 28, 2006 Beebe +10.5 Mod DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Beebe +11.4 Mod DEM Gain
        September 12, 2006 Beebe +11.2 Mod DEM Gain
        August 31, 2006 Beebe +8.1 Mod DEM Gain
        August 27, 2006 Beebe +2.2 Weak DEM Gain
        August 21, 2006 Beebe +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        July 27, 2006 Beebe +5.3 Mod DEM Gain
        July 23, 2006 Beebe +8.9 Mod DEM Gain
        July 10, 2006 Beebe +8.6 Mod DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Marion Berry (D)-inc vs. Mickey Stumbaugh (R)
  • District 2:  Victor Snyder (D)-inc vs. Andy Mayberry (R)
  • District 3:  John Boozman (R)-inc vs. Woodrow Anderson (D)
  • District 4:  Mike Ross (D)-inc vs. Joe Ross (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 4, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 23, 2006 - Primary elections
  • June 13, 2006 - Primary runoff elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP, 3 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 8 GOP, 27 DEM
        State House - DEM control 28 GOP, 72 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Huckabee (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Vacant - Winthrop Rockefeller (R) passed away July 16, 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Blanche Lincoln (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Mark Pryor (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Marion Berry (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Victor Snyder (D) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  John Boozman (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 4:  Mike Ross (D) - 3rd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  California
    Previous Stop:  Arizona

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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