Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


California

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Field Poll:  Feinstein 55%, Mountjoy 33% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Field Poll:  Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 33% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Schwarzenegger 53%, Angelides 40% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Feinstein +20 (up 1) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Feinstein 59%, Mountjoy 33% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Schwarzenegger 55%, Angelides 37% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Public Policy Institute:  Schwarzenegger 48%, Angelides 30% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Schwarzenegger -9 (unchanged) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 40% - 10/17/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Feinstein +19 (up 8) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  Policy Research Institute:  Schwarzenegger 46%, Angelides 33% - 10/04/06
  • Sen:  Field Poll:  Feinstein 57%, Mountjoy 29% - 10/03/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Feinstein 53%, Mountjoy 23% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Schwarzenegger 49%, Angelides 36% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Los Angeles Times:  Feinstein 54%, Mountjoy 36% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Los Angeles Times:  Schwarzenegger 50%, Angelides 33% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Feinstein 55%, Mountjoy 35% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Schwarzenegger 52%, Angelides 38% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  Public Policy Institute:  Schwarzenegger 46%, Angelides 31% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  Field Poll:  Schwarzenegger 44%, Angelides 34% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Schwarzenegger -9 (unchanged) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Feinstein 58%, Mountjoy 35% - 09/12/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Schwarzenegger 47%, Angelides 39% - 09/12/06
  • Gov:  Public Policy Institute:  Schwarzenegger 45%, Angelides 32% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/31/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Schwarzenegger 48%, Angelides 42% - 08/31/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 08/28/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Schwarzenegger 52%, Angelides 38% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Schwarzenegger -9 (up 8) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Feinstein +11 (down 12) - 08/18/06
  • CD-50:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to possibly competitive - 08/08/06
  • Sen:  Field Poll:  Feinstein 56%, Mountjoy 34% - 08/03/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Schwarzenegger 47%, Angelides 41% - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Feinstein +23 (up 5) - 07/26/06
  • Gov:  Field Poll:  Schwarzenegger 45%, Angelides 37% - 07/25/06
  • Gov:  Field Poll approval:  Schwarzenegger +8 - 07/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Schwarzenegger -17 (up 2) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    California is the 8th least conservative state, voting 12.4% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    California ranks 42nd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Dianne Feinstein is seeking a third term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Richard Mountjoy  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dianne Feinstein - Incumbent  
  • Martin Church
  • Colleen Fernald

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Dianne Feinstein +23.9

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Mountjoy Feinstein
        SurveyUSA 11/04 31% 60%
        Field Poll 11/01 33% 55%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 25.5 80% 20.4
        Incumbent approval 20 15% 3.0
        State partisanship 9.9 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Feinstein +23.9 Strong DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Feinstein +22.7 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Feinstein +24.3 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Feinstein +22.4 Strong DEM Hold
        October 3, 2006 Feinstein +21.2 Strong DEM Hold
        October 2, 2006 Feinstein +20.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 28, 2006 Feinstein +19.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 12, 2006 Feinstein +20.1 Strong DEM Hold
        August 28, 2006 Feinstein +19.7 Strong DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Feinstein +23.0 Strong DEM Hold
        August 3, 2006 Feinstein +24.7 Strong DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Feinstein +26.3 Strong DEM Hold
        July 10, 2006 Feinstein +25.6 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking to be re-elected to his first full term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Arnold Schwarzenegger - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Phil Angelides - California State Treasurer  
  • Steve Westly - California State Controller

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Arnold Schwarzenegger +10.9

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Schwarzenegger Angelides
        SurveyUSA 11/04 53% 38%
        Field Poll 11/01 33% 49%
        Rasmussen 10/28 53% 40%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 14.7 80% 11.7
        Incumbent approval -9 15% -1.4
        State partisanship -9.9 5% -0.5
        Other issues Adjustment: 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Schwarzenegger +10.9 Mod GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Schwarzenegger +12.2 Mod GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Schwarzenegger +11.2 Mod GOP Hold
        October 26, 2006 Schwarzenegger +10.0 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Schwarzenegger +9.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Schwarzenegger +11.0 Mod GOP Hold
        October 4, 2006 Schwarzenegger +12.3 Mod GOP Hold
        October 2, 2006 Schwarzenegger +11.8 Mod GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Schwarzenegger +10.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 27, 2006 Schwarzenegger +9.4 Mod GOP Hold
        September 12, 2006 Schwarzenegger +9.8 Mod GOP Hold
        September 4, 2006 Schwarzenegger +9.2 Mod GOP Hold
        August 28, 2006 Schwarzenegger +8.4 Mod GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Schwarzenegger +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Schwarzenegger +3.3 Weak GOP Hold
        July 25, 2006 Schwarzenegger +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Angelides +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        July 10, 2006 Angelides +1.3 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Last Minute Competitive House Races


  • District 11:  Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs. Jerry McNerney (D)
              Election Projection:  Richard Pombo +0.6

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. John Jones (R)
  • District 2:  Wally Herger (R)-inc vs. A.J. Shekhon (D)
  • District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R)-inc vs. Bill Durston (D)
  • District 4:  John Doolittle (R)-inc vs. Charles Brown (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 5:  Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. Xiaochin Claire Yan (R)
  • District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc vs. Todd Hooper (R)
  • District 7:  George Miller (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc vs. Michael DeNunzio (R)
  • District 9:  Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. J.D. denDulk (R)
  • District 10:  Ellen Tauscher (D)-inc vs. Darcy Linn (R)
  • District 12:  Tom Lantos (D)-inc vs. Michael Moloney (R)
  • District 13:  Pete Stark (D)-inc vs. George Bruno (R)
  • District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D)-inc vs. Rob Smith (R)
  • District 15:  Michael Honda (D)-inc vs. Raymond Chukwu (R)
  • District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc vs. Charel Winston (R)
  • District 17:  Sam Farr (D)-inc vs. Anthony de Maio (R)
  • District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc vs. John Kanno (R)
  • District 19:  George Radanovich (R)-inc vs. T.J. Cox (D)
  • District 20:  Jim Costa (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 21:  Devin Nunes (R)-inc vs. Ernest Haze (D)
  • District 22:  OPEN:  Kevin McCarthy (R) vs. Sharon Beery (D)
  • District 23:  Lois Capps (D)-inc vs. Victor Tognazzini (R)
  • District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R)-inc vs. Jill Martinez (D)
  • District 25:  Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. Roberto Rodriguez (D)
  • District 26:  David Dreier (R)-inc vs. Cynthia Matthews (D)
  • District 27:  Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. Peter Hankwitz (R)
  • District 28:  Howard Berman (D)-inc vs. Stanley Kesselman (R)
  • District 29:  Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. Bill Bodel (R)
  • District 30:  Henry Waxman (D)-inc vs. David Jones (R)
  • District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 32:  Hilda Solis (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 33:  Diane Watson (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc vs. Wayne Miller (R)
  • District 35:  Maxine Waters (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 36:  Jane Harman (D)-inc vs. Brian Gibson (R)
  • District 37:  Juanita Millender-McDonald (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D)-inc vs. Sidney Street (R)
  • District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D)-inc vs. James Andion (R)
  • District 40:  Edward Royce (R)-inc vs. Florice Hoffman (D)
  • District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. Louie Contreras (D)
  • District 42:  Gary Miller (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 43:  Joe Baca (D)-inc vs. Scott Folkens (R)
  • District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R)-inc vs. Louis Vandenberg (D)
  • District 45:  Mary Bono (R)-inc vs. David Roth (D)
  • District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc vs. Jim Brandt (D)
  • District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc vs. Tan Nguyen (R)
  • District 48:  John Campbell (R)-inc vs. Steve Young (D)
  • District 49:  Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. Jeeni Criscenzo (D)
  • District 50:  Brian Bilbray(R)-inc vs. Francine Busby(D) - possible competitive race
  • District 51:  Bob Filner (D)-inc vs. Blake Miles (R)
  • District 52:  Duncan Hunter (R)-inc vs. John Rinaldi (D)
  • District 53:  Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. John Woodrum (R)

    Election Timeline


  • March 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 20 GOP, 33 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 25 DEM
        State House - DEM control 32 GOP, 48 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Cruz Bustamante (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Dianne Feinstein (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Michael Thompson (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Wally Herger (R) - 10th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  John Doolittle (R) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Doris Matsui (D) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  George Miller (D) - 16th term
  • House District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D) - 10th term
  • House District 9:  Barbara Lee (D) - 4th term
  • House District 10:  Ellen Tauscher (D) - 5th term
  • House District 11:  Richard Pombo (R) - 7th term
  • House District 12:  Tom Lantos (D) - 13th term
  • House District 13:  Pete Stark (D) - 17th term
  • House District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D) - 7th term
  • House District 15:  Michael Honda (D) - 3th term
  • House District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D) - 6th term
  • House District 17:  Sam Farr (D) - 7th term
  • House District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 19:  George Radanovich (R) - 6th term
  • House District 20:  Jim Costa (D) - 1st term
  • House District 21:  Devin Nunes (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 22:  William Thomas (R) - 14th term (retiring)
  • House District 23:  Lois Capps (D) - 4th term
  • House District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R) - 11th term
  • House District 25:  Buck McKeon (R) - 7th term
  • House District 26:  David Dreier (R) - 13th term
  • House District 27:  Brad Sherman (D) - 5th term
  • House District 28:  Howard Berman (D) - 12th term
  • House District 29:  Adam Schiff (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 30:  Henry Waxman (D) - 16th term
  • House District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D) - 7th term
  • House District 32:  Hilda Solis (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 33:  Diane Watson (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 7th term
  • House District 35:  Maxine Waters (D) - 8th term
  • House District 36:  Jane Harman (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 37:  Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) - 6th term
  • House District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D) - 4th term
  • House District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 40:  Edward Royce (R) - 6th term
  • House District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R) - 13th term
  • House District 42:  Gary Miller (R) - 4th term
  • House District 43:  Joe Baca (D) - 4th term
  • House District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R) - 7th term
  • House District 45:  Mary Bono (R) - 4th term
  • House District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 9th term
  • House District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D) - 5th term
  • House District 48:  John Campbell (R) - 1st term
  • House District 49:  Darrell Issa (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 51:  Bob Filner (D) - 7th term
  • House District 52:  Duncan Hunter (R) - 13th term
  • House District 53:  Susan Davis (D) - 3rd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Colorado
    Previous Stop:  Arkansas

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming