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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Colorado

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-7:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 11/02/06
  • CD-7:  SurveyUSA:  O'Donnell 54%, Perlmutter 38% - 11/02/06
  • CD-7:  Constituent Dynamics:  Perlmutter 51%, O'Donnell 46% - 10/31/06
  • Gov:  Mason Dixon:  Ritter 50%, Beauprez 38% - 10/30/06
  • CD-7:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Ritter 58%, Beauprez 36% - 10/24/06
  • CD-7:  Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Owens +13 (up 3) - 10/23/06
  • CD-7:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-7:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-7:  Constituent Dynamics:  Perlmutter 47%, O'Donnell 47% - 10/13/06
  • CD-7:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Ciruli Associates:  Ritter 43%, Beauprez 33% - 10/11/06
  • CD-7:  SurveyUSA:  O'Donnell 45%, Perlmutter 39% - 10/10/06
  • Gov:  Mason Dixon:  Ritter 50%, Beauprez 35% - 10/09/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Ritter 55%, Beauprez 38% - 09/29/06
  • CD-7:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/27/06
  • CD-7:  SurveyUSA:  O'Donnell 54%, Perlmutter 37% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Strong DEM Gain - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Ritter 56%, Beauprez 34% - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Owens +10 (down 2) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rocky Mountain News:  Ritter 50%, Beauprez 33% - 09/18/06
  • CD-7:  Constituent Dynamics:  Perlmutter 48%, O'Donnell 46% - 09/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Owens +12 (down 8) - 08/27/06
  • CD-7:  SurveyUSA:  O'Donnell 45%, Perlmutter 45% - 08/22/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Ritter 50%, Beauprez 40% - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 08/14/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Ritter 48%, Beauprez 39% - 08/14/06
  • CD-3:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive - 08/08/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Owens +20 (up 9) - 07/23/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Ritter 42%, Beauprez 37% - 07/18/06
  • Gov:  Mason Dixon:  Ritter 42%, Beauprez 35% - 07/18/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Colorado is the 27th most conservative state, voting 2.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Colorado is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Colorado ranks 41st among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Bill Owens is in his 2nd term.  He is term-limited and cannot seek a third term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bob Beauprez - Colorado Representative to the U.S. House  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bill Ritter - Denver District Attorney  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bill Ritter +16.0 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Beauprez Ritter
        SurveyUSA 11/01 35% 57%
        Rocky Mountain News 10/30 33% 55%
        Ciruli Associates 10/26 33% 52%
        Mason-Dixon 10/26 38% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -18.8 90% -16.9
        Incumbent approval 13 5% 0.7
        State partisanship 4.7 5% 0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Ritter +16.0 Mod DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Ritter +12.6 Mod DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Ritter +13.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Ritter +13.8 Mod DEM Gain
        October 9, 2006 Ritter +15.2 Strong DEM Gain
        September 29, 2006 Ritter +16.1 Strong DEM Gain
        September 26, 2006 Ritter +16.8 Strong DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Ritter +11.4 Mod DEM Gain
        September 18, 2006 Ritter +11.3 Mod DEM Gain
        August 27, 2006 Ritter +7.0 Mod DEM Gain
        August 18, 2006 Ritter +6.6 Mod DEM Gain
        August 14, 2006 Ritter +6.0 Mod DEM Gain
        July 23, 2006 Ritter +4.2 Weak DEM Gain
        July 18, 2006 Ritter +4.6 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    District 4


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Marilyn Musgrave is up for a third term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Marilyn Musgrave - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Angie Paccione - Colorado State Representative  
  • Peggy Lamm - Former Colorado State Representative

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Marilyn Musgrave +0.5

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Musgrave by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 11/01 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Paccione by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/01 Musgrave by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Musgrave Paccione
        SurveyUSA 11/01 44% 43%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 1.0 45% 0.5
        Head-to-head polls -1.0 50% -0.5
        District partisanship 11.5 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Musgrave +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Musgrave +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive


    District 7


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Bob Beauprez is running for the Colorado governorship in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rick O'Donnell - Director, Colorado Commission of Higher Education  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ed Perlmutter - Colorado State Senator  
  • Peggy Lamm - Former Colorado State Representative

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Ed Perlmutter +8.1 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Perlmutter by 8 (DEM Favored)
        Charlie Cook 10/13 Perlmutter by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Perlmutter by 8 (Likely DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/27 Perlmutter by 4 (Leans DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date O'Donnell Perlmutter
        SurveyUSA 10/31 38% 54%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 46% 51%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -6.0 45% -2.7
        Head-to-head polls -10.5 50% -5.3
        District partisanship -3 5% -0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Perlmutter +8.1 Mod DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Perlmutter +7.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Perlmutter +4.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 29, 2006 Perlmutter +3.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 24, 2006 Perlmutter +3.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 21, 2006 Perlmutter +3.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Perlmutter +3.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Perlmutter +2.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 10, 2006 Perlmutter +6.2 Mod DEM Gain
        September 27, 2006 Perlmutter +5.2 Mod DEM Gain
        September 7, 2006 Perlmutter +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        August 22, 2006 Perlmutter +0.7 Weak DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Perlmutter +0.9 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Dianna Degette (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Mark Udall (D)-inc vs. Rich Mancuso (R)
  • District 3:  John Salazar (D)-inc vs. Scott Tipton (R)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  D. Lamborn (R) vs. J. Fawcett (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 6:  Tom Tancredo (R)-inc vs. Bill Winter (D)

    Election Timeline


  • May 25, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 4 GOP, 3 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 17 GOP, 18 DEM
        State House - DEM control 30 GOP, 35 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Bill Owens (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Jane Norton (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Wayne Allard (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Ken Salazar (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Dianna Degett (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Mark Udall (D) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  John Salazar (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Joel Hefley (R) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 6:  Tom Tancredo (R) - 4th term
  • House District 7:  Bob Beauprez (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Connecticut
    Previous Stop:  California

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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