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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Connecticut

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Rell 58%, DeStefano 36% - 11/02/06
  • CD-2:  Research 2000:  Courtney 48%, Simmons 47% - 11/01/06
  • CD-5:  Research 2000:  Murphy 46%, Johnson 43% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Lieberman 49%, Lamont 37% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Rell 59%, DeStefano 35% - 11/01/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Courtney 51%, Simmons 45% - 10/31/06
  • CD-4:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/31/06
  • CD-4:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shays 49%, Farrell 42% - 10/31/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
  • CD-5:  Constituent Dynamics:  Murphy 45%, Johnson 40% - 10/31/06
  • CD-4:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/30/06
  • CD-4:  Research 2000:  Farrell 47%, Shays 43% - 10/30/06
  • CD-5:  University of Connecticut:  Murphy 46%, Johnson 42% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Lieberman 48%, Lamont 40% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Rell 57%, DeStefano 35% - 10/30/06
  • CD-2:  Public Opinion Strategies (R):  Simmons 50%, Courtney 43% - 10/27/06
  • CD-2:  Grove Insights (D):  Courtney 45%, Simmons 42% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lieberman +5 (up 3) - 10/27/06
  • CD-4:  University of Connecticut:  Shays 43%, Farrell 43% - 10/24/06
  • Sen:  ARG:  Lieberman 49%, Lamont 37%, Schlesinger 8% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Rell +43 (down 5) - 10/23/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-2:  University of Connecticut:  Simmons 46%, Courtney 44% - 10/21/06
  • CD-4:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-5:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Lieberman 52%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 6% - 10/20/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Rell 59%, DeStefano 33% - 10/20/06
  • CD-4:  Bennett Petts (D):  Shays 44%, Farrell 40% - 10/17/06
  • CD-5:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/17/06
  • CD-5:  Grove Insights (D):  Murphy 45%, Johnson 40% - 10/17/06
  • CD-5:  Tracking initiated - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  University of Connecticut.:  Rell 50%, DeStefano 28% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-4:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Lieberman 53%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 4% - 10/12/06
  • Sen:  Univ. of Conn.:  Lieberman 48%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 4% - 10/12/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Rell 58%, DeStefano 33% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lieberman +2 (down 8) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Lieberman 50%, Lamont 40%, Schlesinger 6% - 10/05/06
  • CD-4:  University of Connecticut:  Shays 44%, Farrell 40% - 10/03/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Lieberman 49%, Lamont 39%, Schlesinger 5% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Rell 63%, DeStefano 30% - 09/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Rell +48 (up 3) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  ARG:  Lieberman 47%, Lamont 45%, Schlesinger 3% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Lieberman 45%, Lamont 43%, Schlesinger 5% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Rell 60%, DeStefano 32% - 09/19/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Lieberman 51%, Lamont 38%, Schlesinger 7% - 09/13/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Courtney 51%, Simmons 45% - 09/07/06
  • CD-4:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shays 49%, Farrell 42% - 09/07/06
  • Sen:  Public Opinion:  Lieberman 51%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 4% - 09/07/06
  • CD-2:  DCCC:  Courtney 41%, Simmons 40% - 09/06/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Rell +45 (up 3) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Lieberman 45%, Lamont 43%, Schlesinger 6% - 08/23/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Rell 61%, DeStefano 31% - 08/23/06
  • Sen:  ARG:  Lieberman 44%, Lamont 42%, Schlesinger 3% - 08/22/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lieberman +10 (down 3) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Lieberman 53%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 4% - 08/17/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Rell 64%, DeStefano 32% - 08/17/06
  • CD-4:  Congressional Quarterly:  Leans GOP to No Clear Favorite - 08/14/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak IND Gain to Mod IND Gain - 08/14/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Lieberman 46%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 6% - 08/14/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong DEM Hold to Weak IND Gain - 08/09/06
  • Tracking initiated - 08/09/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Connecticut is the 6th least conservative state, voting 12.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Connecticut is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Connecticut ranks 38th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Joseph Lieberman sought a fourth term in 2006.  He lost in the primary but will run as an independent in the general election.

    GOP Candidates

  • Alan Schlesinger - Former Connecticut State Representative  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Joseph Lieberman - Incumbent
  • Ned Lamont  

    Independent Candidates

  • Joseph Lieberman - U.S. Senator from Connecticut

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Joseph Lieberman +9.9 - IND pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Schlesinger Lamont Lieberman
        Quinnipiac 11/05 6% 38% 50%
        SurveyUSA 11/04   38% 49%
        Research 2000 11/01   37% 49%
        Rasmussen 10/28   40% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor Lieberman

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 10.8 85% 9.1
        Incumbent approval 5 15% 0.8

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Lieberman +9.9 Mod IND Gain
        November 1, 2006 Lieberman +9.8 Mod IND Gain
        October 30, 2006 Lieberman +11.2 Mod IND Gain
        October 27, 2006 Lieberman +13.1 Mod IND Gain
        October 21, 2006 Lieberman +10.5 Mod IND Gain
        October 12, 2006 Lieberman +7.6 Mod IND Gain
        October 7, 2006 Lieberman +7.7 Mod IND Gain
        October 5, 2006 Lieberman +8.9 Mod IND Gain
        September 28, 2006 Lieberman +7.2 Mod IND Gain
        September 19, 2006 Lieberman +8.5 Mod IND Gain
        September 13, 2006 Lieberman +9.2 Mod IND Gain
        September 7, 2006 Lieberman +8.3 Mod IND Gain
        August 23, 2006 Lieberman +6.0 Mod IND Gain
        August 18, 2006 Lieberman +8.7 Mod IND Gain
        August 17, 2006 Lieberman +9.2 Mod IND Gain
        August 14, 2006 Lieberman +6.3 Mod IND Gain
        August 9, 2006 Lieberman +2.0 Weak IND Gain
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jodi Rell, who became governor after the resignation of former GOP Gov. John Rowland in 2004, is seeking her first elected term.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jodi Rell - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dannel Malloy - Stamford Mayor
  • John DeStefano - New Haven Mayor  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jodi Rell +24.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Rell DeStefano
        Research 2000 11/02 58% 36%
        Quinnipiac 11/01 59% 35%
        Rasmussen 10/28 57% 35%

    Projection Data

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 22.7 80% 18.1
        Incumbent approval 43 15% 6.5
        State partisanship -10.3 5% -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Rell +24.1 Strong GOP Hold
        November 2, 2006 Rell +24.1 Strong GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Rell +24.3 Strong GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Rell +24.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Rell +25.4 Strong GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Rell +26.2 Strong GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Rell +28.0 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Rell +29.9 Strong GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Rell +31.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Rell +29.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 19, 2006 Rell +28.6 Strong GOP Hold
        August 23, 2006 Rell +30.6 Strong GOP Hold
        August 17, 2006 Rell +28.6 Strong GOP Hold
        August 9, 2006 Rell +30.6 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Rob Simmons seeks a fourth term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rob Simmons - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Joe Courtney - 2002 House District 2 Candidate  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Joe Courtney +1.6 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss Up
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Toss Up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Courtney by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 07/10 Simmons by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Simmons Courtney
        Research 2000 10/30 47% 48%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 51%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.5 45% 0.2
        Head-to-head polls -3.5 50% -1.8
        District partisanship -1.0 5% -0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Courtney +1.6 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Courtney +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Courtney +0.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Simmons +1.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Simmons +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Courtney +0.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Courtney +0.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Courtney +0.7 Weak DEM Gain
        September 7, 2006 Courtney +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        September 6, 2006 Simmons +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        July 10, 2006 Simmons +1.1 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold


    District 4


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Christopher Shays is up for re-election to a 10th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Christopher Shays - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Diane Farrell - Westport Selectwoman and 2004 Candidate  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Christopher Shays +1.0

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Toss Up
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Toss Up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Farrell by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 08/14 Toss Up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Shays Farrell
        Research 2000 10/28 43% 47%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 52% 43%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 45% -0.2
        Head-to-head polls 2.5 50% 1.3
        District partisanship -1.0 5% -0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Shays +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Shays +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Farrell +1.1 Weak DEM Gain
        October 24, 2006 Shays +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Shays +1.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Shays +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Shays +1.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Shays +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 3, 2006 Shays +2.7 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Shays +1.7 Weak GOP Hold
        August 14, 2006 Shays +0.2 Weak GOP Hold
        July 10, 2006 Shays +1.1 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold


    District 5


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Nancy Johnson is up for re-election to a 13th term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Nancy Johnson - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Chris Murphy - Connecticut State Senator  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Chris Murphy +0.1 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Murphy by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/21 Toss Up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Murphy by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Toss Up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Johnson Murphy
        Research 2000 10/29 46% 43%
        UConn 10/28 42% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -1.0 45% -0.5
        Head-to-head polls -0.5 50% -0.3
        District partisanship 11.5 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Murphy +0.1 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Murphy +1.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Murphy +1.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Johnson +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Johnson +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Johnson +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  John Larson (D)-inc vs. Scott MacLean (R)
  • District 3:  Rosa DeLauro (D)-inc vs. Joseph Vollano (R)

    Election Timeline


  • May 23, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - special circumstance DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 12 GOP, 24 DEM
        State House - DEM control 52 GOP, 98 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jodi Rell (R) - 1st term (partial), up for election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Kevin Sullivan (D) - special circumstance, normally tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Christopher Dodd (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Joseph Lieberman (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  John Larson (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Rob Simmons (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Rosa DeLauro (D) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Christopher Shays (R) - 9th term
  • House District 5:  Nancy Johnson (R) - 12th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop: 
    Delaware
    Previous Stop:  Colorado

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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