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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Delaware

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Farleigh Dickinson:  Carper 60%, Ting 26% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carper +25 (down 6) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carper +31 (up 2) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Farleigh Dickinson:  Carper 63%, Ting 23% - 09/22/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Delaware is the 11th least conservative state, voting 10.1% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Delaware is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Delaware ranks 36th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Tom Carper is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jan Ting - Former U.S. Immigration Commissioner  
  • Mike Protack - Senate Candidate in 2002, Gubernatorial Candidate in 2004
  • Jim Ursomarso - Lt. Governor Nominee in 2004

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tom Carper - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Tom Carper +31.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Ting Carper
        Farleigh Dickinson 11/02 26% 60%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 34.0 80% 27.2
        Incumbent approval 25 15% 3.7
        State partisanship 7.6 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Carper +31.3 Strong DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Carper +31.3 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Carper +36.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Carper +37.0 Strong DEM Hold
        September 22, 2006 Carper +36.7 Strong DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Carper +32.7 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Mike Castle (R)-inc vs. Dennis Spivack (D)

    Election Timeline


  • July 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 8 GOP, 13 DEM
        State House - GOP control 25 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ruth Ann Minner (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  John Carney (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Joseph Biden (D) - 7th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Carper (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Mike Castle (R) - 7th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Florida
    Previous Stop:  Connecticut

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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