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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Florida

Latest News and Updates


  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Nelson 59%, Harris 33% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Crist 50%, Davis 44% - 11/02/06
  • CD-13:  Constituent Dynamics:  Jennings 49%, Buchanan 47% - 10/31/06
  • CD-22:  Constituent Dynamics:  Klein 50%, Shaw 48% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  St. Peterburg Times:  Nelson 56%, Harris 30% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  St. Peterburg Times:  Crist 48%, Davis 42% - 10/30/06
  • CD-13:  Hamilton Beattie (D):  Jennings 52%, Buchanan 41% - 10/27/06
  • CD-13:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-16:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-22:  Anzalone-Lizst (D):  Klein 48%, Shaw 42% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +5 (up 2) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Crist 52%, Davis 41% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Nelson 58%, Harris 35% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Crist 51%, Davis 42% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Nelson 64%, Harris 29% - 10/11/06
  • CD-22:  Research 2000:  Shaw 48%, Klein 43% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Crist 46%, Davis 44% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bush +13 (down 7) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Nelson 57%, Harris 31% - 10/20/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Crist 50%, Davis 39% - 10/20/06
  • CD-16:  Research 2000:  Mahoney 48%, Negron 41% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-13:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-13:  Constituent Dynamics:  Jennings 47%, Buchanan 44% - 10/13/06
  • CD-13:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-16:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-13:  Pundit rating change - 10/07/06
  • CD-16:  Pundit rating change - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Nelson 55%, Harris 37% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Crist 54%, Davis 38% - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Nelson 61%, Harris 33% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Crist 53%, Davis 43% - 10/10/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +3 (down 6) - 10/07/06
  • CD-13:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • CD-13:  Tracking initiated - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 54%, Harris 37% - 10/04/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Crist 54%, Davis 38% - 10/04/06
  • CD-16:  RATING CHANGE:  not competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 10/03/06
  • CD-16:  Constituent Dynamics:  Mahoney 49%, Negron* 46% - 10/03/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Nelson 53%, Harris 35% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 56%, Harris 33% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Crist 45%, Davis 40% - 09/27/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Nelson 59%, Harris 31% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Crist 50%, Davis 40% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Crist 51%, Davis 36% - 09/27/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Nelson 55%, Harris 37% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Crist 49%, Davis 43% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bush +20 (up 10) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Nelson 53%, Harris 38% - 09/15/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/15/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Crist 49%, Davis 41% - 09/15/06
  • Tracking initiated (Gov and Sen) and primary winners posted - 09/08/06
  • CD-22:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shaw 52%, Klein 44% - 09/07/06
  • CD-22:  Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Florida is the 26th most conservative state, voting 2.5% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Florida's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Florida ranks 28th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Bill Nelson is re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Katherine Harris - Florida Representative to the U.S. House  
  • William McBride
  • LeRoy Collins, Jr.
  • Peter Monroe

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bill Nelson - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bill Nelson +23.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Harris Nelson
        Strategic Vision 11/02 33% 59%
        St. Petersburg Times 10/30 30% 56%
        Quinnipiac 10/25 29% 64%
        Mason-Dixon 10/20 31% 57%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 28.3 80% 22.6
        Incumbent approval 5 15% 0.8
        State partisanship -5.0 5% -0.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 2, 2006 Nelson +23.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Nelson +22.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Nelson +22.9 Strong DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Nelson +22.6 Strong DEM Hold
        October 21, 2006 Nelson +18.9 Strong DEM Hold
        October 11, 2006 Nelson +17.6 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Nelson +15.6 Strong DEM Hold
        October 4, 2006 Nelson +16.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 2, 2006 Nelson +17.4 Strong DEM Hold
        September 27, 2006 Nelson +17.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Nelson +16.0 Strong DEM Hold
        September 15, 2006 Nelson +16.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 8, 2006 Nelson +19.5 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jeb Bush is finishing up his 2nd term.  He is term-limited and cannot seek a third term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Charlie Crist - Florida Attorney General  
  • Tom Gallagher - Florida Chief Financial Officer

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jim Davis - Florida Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Rod Smith - Florida State Senator

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Charlie Crist +6.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Crist Davis
        Strategic Vision 11/02 50% 44%
        St. Petersburg Times 10/30 48% 42%
        Rasmussen 10/27 52% 41%
        Quinnipiac 10/23 46% 44%
        Mason-Dixon 10/20 50% 39%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 6.3 90% 5.6
        Incumbent approval 13 5% 0.7
        State partisanship 5.0 5% 0.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 2, 2006 Crist +6.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Crist +7.9 Mod GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Crist +8.3 Mod GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Crist +7.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Crist +10.3 Mod GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Crist +12.1 Mod GOP Hold
        October 11, 2006 Crist +12.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 10, 2006 Crist +11.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 4, 2006 Crist +11.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 27, 2006 Crist +9.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Crist +6.7 Mod GOP Hold
        September 15, 2006 Crist +6.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 8, 2006 Crist +4.4 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 13


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Katherine Harris is running for the Senate.

    GOP Candidates

  • Vern Buchanan  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Christine Jennings  


    Election Projection:  Christine Jennings +1.7 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/27 Jennings by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/27 Jennings by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/07 Toss Up
        Congressional Quarterly 10/07 Buchanan by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Buchanan Jennings
        Constituent Dynamics 10/31 47% 49%
        Hamilton Beattie(D) 10/04 41% 52%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 45% -0.2
        Head-to-head polls** -3.8 50% -1.8
        District partisanship 6.5 5% 0.3
        ** - partisan poll adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 31, 2006 Jennings +1.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Jennings +1.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Jennings +1.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Jennings +1.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Buchanan +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 16


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Mark Foley resigned.  His name will stay on the ballot, but votes cast for him will be given to his GOP replacement, Joe Negron.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joe Negron  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tim Mahoney  


    Election Projection:  Tim Mahoney +3.7 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/27 Toss Up
        Charlie Cook 10/27 Toss Up
        Larry Sabato 10/07 Mahoney by 4 (Lean GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/07 Mahoney by 4 (Lean GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Negron Mahoney
        Research 2000 10/16 41% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -2.0 70% -1.4
        Head-to-head polls -7.0 25% -1.8
        District partisanship 10.0 5% 0.5
        Other issues Adjustment: -1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 27, 2006 Mahoney +3.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Mahoney +4.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Mahoney +3.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Mahoney +4.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Mahoney +2.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 3, 2006 Mahoney +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- not competitive


    District 22


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Clay Shaw seeks a thirteenth term in 2006.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Clay Shaw - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ron Klein - Florida State Senator  


    Election Projection:  Clay Shaw +0.1

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss Up
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Toss Up
        Larry Sabato 09/03 Toss Up
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Toss Up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Shaw Klein
        Constituent Dynamics 10/31 48% 50%
        Anzalone-Lizst (D) 10/27 42% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.0 45% 0.0
        Head-to-head polls** -1.0 50% -0.5
        District partisanship 13.0 5% 0.7
        ** - partisan poll adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 31, 2006 Shaw +0.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Shaw +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Shaw +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Shaw +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Shaw +2.3 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Shaw +3.7 Weak GOP Hold
        July 10, 2006 Shaw +3.0 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeff Miller (R)-inc vs. Joe Roberts (D)
  • District 2:  Allen Boyd (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  Corrine Brown (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Ander Crenshaw (R)-inc vs. Robert Harms (D)
  • District 5:  Virginia Brown-Waite (R)-inc vs. John Russell (D)
  • District 6:  Cliff Stearns (R)-inc vs. David Bruderly (D)
  • District 7:  John Mica (R)-inc vs. John Chagnon (D)
  • District 8:  Richard Keller (R)-inc vs. Charlie Stuart (D)
  • District 9:  OPEN:  G. Bilirakis (R) vs. P. Busansky (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 10:  Bill Yound (R)-inc vs. Samm Simpson (D)
  • District 11:  OPEN:  Kathy Castor (D) vs. Eddie Adams (R)
  • District 12:  Adam Putnam (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Connie Mack, IV (R)-inc vs. Robert Neeld (D)
  • District 15:  David Weldon (R)-inc vs. Bob Bowman (D)
  • District 17:  Kendrick Meek (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 18:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)-inc vs. David Patlak (D)
  • District 19:  Robert Wexler (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 20:  Debbie Schultz (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 21:  Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)-inc vs. Frank Gonzalez (D)
  • District 23:  Alcee Hastings (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 24:  Tom Feeney (R)-inc vs. Clint Curtis (D)
  • District 25:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R)-inc vs. Michael Calderin (D)

    Election Timeline


  • May 12, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 5, 2006 - First primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 18 GOP, 7 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 26 GOP, 14 DEM
        State House - GOP control 84 GOP, 36 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jeb Bush (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Toni Jennings (R) - 2nd term
  • Senior Senator:  Bill Nelson (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Mel Martinez (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Jeff Miller (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Allen Boyd (D) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Corrine Brown (D) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Ander Crenshaw (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Virginia Brown-Waite (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Cliff Stearns (R) - 9th term
  • House District 7:  John Mica (R) - 7th term
  • House District 8:  Richard Keller (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 9:  Michael Bilirakis (R) - 13th term (retiring)
  • House District 10:  Bill Yound (R) - 18th term
  • House District 11:  Jim Davis (D) - 5th term (running for Governor)
  • House District 12:  Adam Putnam (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 13:  Katherine Harris (R) - 4th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 14:  Connie Mack, IV (R) - 1st term
  • House District 15:  David Weldon (R) - 6th term
  • House District 16:  Mark Foley (R) - 6th term
  • House District 17:  Kendrick Meek (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 18:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) - 9th term
  • House District 19:  Robert Wexler (D) - 5th term
  • House District 20:  Debbie Schultz (D) - 1st term
  • House District 21:  Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) - 7th term
  • House District 22:  Clay Shaw (R) - 13th term
  • House District 23:  Alcee Hastings (D) - 4th term
  • House District 24:  Tom Feeney (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 25:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Georgia
    Previous Stop:  Delaware

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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